Best NFL player prop for Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Hey Arnold

Dan Arnold
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL· 1 month ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Another week, another London game. For Week 6 across the pond, we’re treated to the Miami Dolphins versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams are scuffling, with a combined 1-9 record between them. As such, this serves as an excellent opportunity to cash in on a win, meaning each team should come into this one highly motivated. Before I give my player prop of the game, be sure to check out our expert’s picks for game sides and totals.

Both teams’ offenses have had their fair share of personnel changes through the early part of the season. Miami is expected to welcome back Tua Tagovailoa as their QB1 this week. However, it’s a relatively new Jaguar I am focusing on for my favorite player prop of the game.

Dan Arnold (JAX) over 33.5 receiving yards (-120)

Line available at time of publishing. Playable up to over 35.5 receiving yards.

After coming over to the Jaguars via trade, Arnold has had an immediate impact. In Week 4, playing on a limited basis as he was learning the offense, the big tight end grabbed both his targets for 29 yards, on just 12 routes run. Last week, his snap share skyrocketed to 73%, and he ran a route on 32 of Jacksonville’s 38 pass plays. Not only that, but he led the Jaguars in receptions (tied with 6), targets (8) and yards (64).

Now before you scream at me, “it was only one game!” let’s look at the Jaguars’ overall tight-end usage this season. Jacksonville’s tight ends have registered a 21% yard share from Trevor Lawrence, as well as 20% of his overall targets. Opening-week starter, James O’Shaughnessy had 72 yards in just 6 quarters before picking up an ankle injury. Arnold is now filling the void as the primary pass-catching tight end.

The Dolphins stand right in the middle of the pack defensively versus tight ends, having yielded 251 yards over 5 games. However, Miami’s safeties and linebackers, who figure to have primary responsibility on Arnold, do not grade well in coverage. Collectively, they’ve allowed 56 completions in 69 attempts, for 555 yards. Arnold ranks 9th among tight ends in yards per route run – he should have no issues finding seams in the defense.

With Lawrence implied at 33 pass attempts, I have Arnold conservatively projected at 5 targets. That volume will allow the UW-Platteville alum to churn out more than 40 yards receiving.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$50

Get $50 Free - No Deposit Required!

Register for a FanDuel Sportsbook account

Receive $50 in site credits to use on Sportsbook

No Deposit Required!

Winnings paid as CASH. 21+ and new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Win $100 if any team scores a point in any NFL, NBA, CFB, or CBB game!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $1+ any NFL, NBA, CFB, or CBB game Money Line

If your team wins, you will be issued a $100 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,001

Get a $1,001 Free Bet!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,001

Win or lose, you'll receive a free bet matching your initial stake - up to $1,001!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$400

Get a $400 Risk-Free Bet on the Breeders' Cup!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code PICKS400

Place a bet on the Breeders' Cup

Receive a refund if your first bet loses up to $400

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.