Best NFL player prop for SNF Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders: Kelce to take charge

Travis Kelce playing for the Chiefs in the AFC divisional round
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PropBetGuy

NFL· 2 weeks ago

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Week 10’s installment of Sunday Night Football brings us a clash from the AFC West. The Chiefs and Raiders will go toe-to-toe, both looking to nudge towards the top of a surprisingly crowded division. Every game on the schedule is crucial, but divisional matchups in a playoff race, take on even more importance. Before I get to my favorite player prop, be sure to check out our full game preview.

These two teams combined for 138 points in their 2 matchups last season. With a game total in the low 50s, we should be in for more fireworks tonight. And with that, my best bet of the game features one of the top weapons on the Chiefs. Looking to bounce back from a mediocre few games, I see big things coming for tight end Travis Kelce.

Travis Kelce (KC) over 72.5 receiving yards (-110)

Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing. Playable to over 76.5 receiving yards. 

Even in what’s been considered as a down year for the Chiefs offense, Travis Kelce still reigns supreme as the NFL’s premier pass-catching tight end. The All-Pro once again leads all tight ends in yards, targets and receptions. While he’s exceeded this line in only 4 of his 9 games, Sunday night reads as a big game for the 8-year veteran.

Dating back to 2018, Kelce has 662 yards in 6 games against the Raiders, including 5 in which he reached at least 90. Las Vegas is not equipped to stop pass-catching tight ends, and that continues to ring true this season. The Raiders allow the the 2nd-highest yard share and the 4th-highest target share to opposing tight ends. Six of their 8 opponents have seen their primary tight end eclipse his yardage prop against the Silver and Black.

The Raiders defense is predicated on shutting down opposing wide receivers. Vegas permits the 4th-lowest yard share to opposing wideouts. Tyreek Hill will get his fair share of looks, but I expect plenty of double coverage and safety help against the speedster. The Raiders defense has been gashed down the middle, which is where Kelce produces 70% of his receiving yards.

Plus, this game projects very favorably from a pace perspective. These teams average 75 plays per game between them, making this the second-fastest game on today’s slate. With the Chiefs only slight favorites, the passing attack should be in play throughout the game.

This serves as a fantastic get right spot for Mahomes and Kelce. I have the Cincinnati product projected around 85 yards tonight.

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