Best NFL player prop for TNF Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins: Jackson runs wild

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson same game parlay
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL· 2 weeks ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 10 with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Miami Dolphins. The 6-2 Ravens will look to build on their division lead in a crowded AFC North; the 2-7 Dolphins just hope to stay competitive. Before I give you my play of the game, be sure to check out our expert’s predictions for sides and totals.

My favorite bet of the game features what has become my go-to player prop type of the season. I love the Ravens former MVP to keep the ball in his own hands tonight.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) over 9.5 rushing attempts (-105)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing. 

Another primetime game, another quarterback carries prop. This week the focus is on the NFL’s premier dual-threat quarterback.

Unless you’re new to the NFL, you know about Lamar Jackson’s running ability. Through 8 games this season he is averaging 12.1 carries and 75 rushing yards per game. Over the last 4 weeks, he has reached double-digit carries 3 times. With the Ravens backfield decimated by injuries, they are leaning on their quarterback for more rushing production. Jackson is averaging 7.5 designed rushes over the last 4 games, compared to just 6 per game over the first 4 contests.

Showing off under the lights

The Ravens signal-caller loves to show out in primetime games. Dating back to last season, Jackson averages 12 carries per game in nationally televised matchups–almost 2 full carries more than the rest of his schedule. He eclipsed 10 carries in 5 of those 7 games while registering 9 attempts in the two misses.

Playing in his first NFL game in his native South Florida, Jackson should be even more motivated to keep the ball in his hands in front of friends and family.

The matchup

The Dolphins rush defense has been surprisingly strong this season. Despite consistently permitting their opponents into positive game-scripts, Miami sits at league average–allowing only 111 yards per game on the ground. This speaks more to the potential effectiveness of Ravens running backs Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell. Miami’s strength in the defensive interior should open up more zone read possibilities for Jackson against the slower linebacking core.

Plus, the more effective the Dolphins are at stopping Freeman and Bell the more likely Jackson is forced into passing downs. The Louisville product is already scrambling on 13 percent of his drop-backs this season and increased passing downs will lead to more impromptu rush opportunities as well.

Overall

Usually I’d stay away from a Jackson rushing prop in a game in which the Ravens are favored by more than a touchdown. However, this line is 2 carries too low given Jackson’s usage of late. With all of the above variables in play, I project 12 carries for Jackson.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$50

Get $50 Free - No Deposit Required!

Register for a FanDuel Sportsbook account

Receive $50 in site credits to use on Sportsbook

No Deposit Required!

Winnings paid as CASH. 21+ and new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Win $100 if any team scores a point in any NFL, NBA, CFB, or CBB game!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $1+ any NFL, NBA, CFB, or CBB game Money Line

If your team wins, you will be issued a $100 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,001

Get a $1,001 Free Bet!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,001

Win or lose, you'll receive a free bet matching your initial stake - up to $1,001!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$400

Get a $400 Risk-Free Bet on the Breeders' Cup!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code PICKS400

Place a bet on the Breeders' Cup

Receive a refund if your first bet loses up to $400

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.