Best NFL player props for Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers: Jonesing for the run

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones runs with the ball during win over Tennessee Titans on Sunday Night Football
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PropBetGuy

NFL· 4 weeks ago

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Our third NFL Sunday concludes with an NFC showdown. The Packers travel west to Aaron Rodgers’ native Northern California to take on the 49ers. Whenever two dynamic offenses collide, there are sure to be plenty of fun player props of which to choose. Before I get to my play of the game, make sure to check out our expert picks for the game sides and totals.

There are no shortage of strength-on-strength type matchups in this game. Those situations can grow tough on a player prop bettor; it’s imperative to figure out which side of the play will prevail. In the case of my favorite player prop of this night, I’m banking on the Packers to continue to feed their playmaker, even against a tough defense.

Aaron Jones (GB) over 13.5 rushing attempts (-115)

Line available at time of publishing.

This is a low line for the lead dog in the Packers’ backfield. After a lackluster effort from the entire Packers offense in Week 1, Jones saw 17 carries last week. And, there was even room for more, with Jones catching two touchdown passes from inside the 5-yard line.

In 2020, Jones received at least 14 rush attempts in 9 of 14 regular season games in which he played.  Of the misses, three were in games decided by more than 3 scores. In this Sunday night matchup, currently hovering at a 3-point spread on most books, expect a close game until late in the fourth quarter. In fact, since 2019, Jones averages 15.6 carries in games decided by two scores or less.

And tonight, I fully expect the Packers to keep the game relatively close against the 49ers. San Francisco comes in at 2-0, with both wins by the one-score variety. Green Bay, although showing their flaws on defense, represents the toughest matchup for the 49ers so far this season.

San Francisco’s rush defense projects to be above average, but shouldn’t be prohibitive for this play. As is always the case versus the Packers, the defense will be keyed in on stopping Rodgers’ aerial attack. Opposing RBs have been able to rack up 4.2 yards per carry versus the 49ers thus far. As long as the Packers keep the score close and continue to move the chains, Jones should clear this.

I’m projecting Jones closer to 16 carries tonight.

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