PropBetGuy
NFL
Show Bio
Monday Night Football for Week 9 features two of the NFL’s most storied franchises. The Chicago Bears make the short trip to Western Pennsylvania to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. Both teams are right in the thick of their respective conference wild-card races. Before I give you my play of the game, be sure to check out our expert’s predictions for sides and totals.
Each of these teams have had their fair share of offensive struggles during the first half of the season. Generating offense and points will be at a premium in this matchup, so both ball clubs will look to move the ball down the field however they can. For the Bears, I see that happening on the strength of their quarterback — just not with his arm.
Justin Fields (CHI) over 6.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
It’s been a turbulent start to Fields’ rookie campaign. The first-round draft pick only has 3 passing touchdowns to pair with his 7 interceptions, and has eclipsed 200 yards through the air only once. Ranking 29th and 31st respectively in completion percentage and yards per attempt, it’s been a struggle for Fields to move the ball through the air.
Run, Justin, run
However, what we have seen in recent weeks is Fields using his legs more. The dynamic athlete has 24 rushes over his last 3 games, with 20 of those rushes derived from his scrambling ability. Over that span, Fields is scrambling on 16% of his dropbacks. The results have yielded 8.5 yards per rush attempt, which is more than 2 yards better than Fields’ passing averages (6.3 yards per attempts).
The Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection all season. Fields is pressured on 39% of his dropbacks, which is the 4th-most in the NFL. And tonight, the Georgia alum might be running for his life even more so than usual.
Under pressure
Led by All-Pro TJ Watt, the Steelers have generated pressure on the opposing quarterback at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Fields is likely to be under duress frequently, which should lead to even more undesigned run plays as he escapes the pocket.
Let Fields run wild
Fields also registered 2 designed rushes last week, and the threat for a kneel or sneak also looms as a potential attempt. It’s obvious the Bears are allowing their rookie to use his dual-threat ability more freely. With that, I have Fields projected at 9 carries on Monday night.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
