Best NFL Playoffs Prop Bet for Ravens vs. Titans: Will Jackson run wild?

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson same game parlay
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PropBetGuy

NFL· 1 year ago

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

The first game on Sunday of Wildcard weekend features a rematch of one of last year’s surprising playoff upsets. The Baltimore Ravens will head to Nashville, looking to avenge last season’s playoff exit at the hands of the Tennessee Titans. The visiting Ravens come in as 3.5-point favorites with the highest game total of the weekend at over/under 54.5. Do yourself a favor and check out our picks and full game analysis, before you place any bets.

For someone like me who loves offense, this game was one of my favorites to evaluate for player props.  There were many dynamic offensive weapons to chose from, but ultimately, I decided to hitch my wagon to the player who has seemingly regained his MVP form over the past few weeks.

Lamar Jackson over 68.5 rushing yards

Line available at publishing. Playable up to over 72.5.

Fresh off of his second straight season reaching 1,000 rushing yards, the Ravens quarterback looks to win his first playoff game in his third try. After starting the season slowly, Jackson has rushed for 430 yards over his last five games, coinciding with the Ravens’ five-game win streak. As I’ve highlighted before, Jackson likes to keep the ball in his hands in close and important games. With the Ravens needing all five of their wins to clinch one of the AFC’s wild-card spots, it’s no surprise to see an uptick in Jackson’s rushing production.

It’s always difficult to assess a matchup with such a unique player such as Jackson. In their game earlier this season, Jackson was limited to 51 yards on 13 carries. However, in last year’s playoff matchup, Jackson notched 143 yards on 20 carries.  Breaking down quarterback rushing yards comes down to two elements — yards on designed runs, and scramble yards.  The Titans haven’t faced too many mobile quarterbacks this year (outside of Jackson), so the former is difficult to assess. But on the scramble, the Titans have allowed mostly non-mobile quarterbacks over 6.5 yards per rush. With Jackson at 7.5 yards per scramble, I like his chances to hit his average.

On designed runs over the last five games, Jackson is averaging 8.1 yards per carry. This coincides with the emergence of rookie running back J.K. Dobbins, whom defenses now need to account for as well.  The Titans have shown some vulnerabilities against speedy runners around the edge, which suits Jackson well.

As a basis for projecting this game, using Jackson’s resurgent numbers over the last five games seems reasonable. I have him conservatively in the high 70s, however, given the gravity of the game, it would not surprise me to see him pick up a few more carries than expected.

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