Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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As we enter Week 14, I want to do a quick State of the Union. My last few weeks in NFL have been difficult. I’ve had 2 straight weeks in the negative, including 3 of the last 5. It’s been one of the roughest stretches for me in my 3 years professionally handicapping. I look for matchups that stand out and lines that are favorable. Recently, I’ve put too much stock into the wrong angle or misjudged a game script. I’ve had a few plays land on the hook and outright unexplainable second halves (again, looking at you Terry McLaurin). Either way, I must be better going forward. I thank you for the trust and promise to close out the season on a positive note. Enough sulking let’s get into the slate where playoffs dreams and nightmares will come true.
Adam Thielen (MIN) Over 47.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Thielen has alternated hitting this line over the last 4 weeks and previous to that, he his it in 5 of the first 8. The two down weeks? Against the New York Jets (27) and the Dallas Cowboys (25), both top 5 in passing DVOA. Detroit is ranked 19th in the same metric and 24th against WR2s. His matchup is an advantageous one. Detroit will likely deploy Will Harris (66.9 PFF cover grade) or backup slot CB Mike Hughes. Jeff Okudah tailed Justin Jefferson in the Week 3 matchup and will likely do the same this Sunday, giving Thielen his pick of the litter out of the slot. His aDOT against Detroit earlier in the season (12) was his 3rd highest of the season and he was targeted 8 times (above his season average of 6.3). With the O/U set at 51.5, I expect this to be the high-flying matchup of the day slate. 1U
Miles Sanders (PHI) Over 14.5 rush attempts (+112)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s cold, it’s wet, and it’s windy in MetLife Stadium this time of year. The Eagles are traveling to East Rutherford, NJ to take on the Giants, with an 80% chance of rain. The Giants have been gashed this season by opposing RBs, allowing 15+ rush attempts 6 time this season. Sanders has seen his attempts fluctuate based on matchup and the Giants are the perfect team to load up on the run. They are 26th in Rush DVOA and have given up 90+ yards to over 7 different running backs. The Eagles are heavily favored on the road and the O/U is set at 45. The Giants’ offense has stalled these last 3 games, averaging the fewest time of possession in that span (25:49 min). This is an opportune time for the Eagles to go back to their rush heavy approach like their game against the Packers where Sanders had 21 carries. 1U
Tee Higgins (CIN) Over 63.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Higgins gets the best matchup of the 3-headed monster this week in Denzel Ward. I watched Martin Emerson completely lock up Mike Evans a few weeks ago and vowed never to test him again, even with a player like Chase. Higgins is coming off a down week with Chase returning, but it is a perfect opportunity to buy-low. He’s hit this in 4 of 6 games this season with Chase in the lineup and that number goes to 4/5 when you exclude the opening game vs PIT where he only played 26% of the snaps. He averaged 85.6 yards per game this season in that 5-game span before Chase’s injury. He could be in for a really big and is worthy of consideration for alt-lines at + money odds (80+ 90+). 1U
Darius Slayton (NYG) Under 45.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m going back to this Eagles/Giants game. Slayton has been on a roll of late and large reason has been his ability to make splash plays. Over the last 4, Slayton has 3 catches of 44 yards or more, which made up 61% of his total yards in those games. Unfortunately for Slayton, the Eagles rank 1st in DVOA vs deep passes. Eagles CB is ranked according to PFF and has only let two passes of 20+ yards on the season. Throw in 80% chance of rain and I love Slayton to have a quiet afternoon. 1U.
Josh Allen (BUF) over 42.5 rushing yards -110
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This game will be pivotal in how the AFC East shakes out and we have a snow game with double digit winds expected in Buffalo. Allen is averaging 48 rushing yards per game on the season and 51 YPG vs the Jets on his career. His 7.01 yards per rush in the month of December is the highest mark of any month in his career. I love Allen today to get it done on the ground and peel off one or two big runs to make this mark an easy cash. The Jets do a great job of getting pressure and winning in coverage that should see Allen tucking it and taking off. A perfect example is his Week 8 matchup vs the Jets when he rans for 86 yards on 9 attempts. 1U
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