Best NFL Week 14 Prop Bet for Thursday Night Football: Patriots to stifle Goff?

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff drops back to pass during loss to Miami Dolphins
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PropBetGuy

NFL · 1 year ago

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Week 14 kicks us off on Thursday with a Super Bowl LIII rematch. The NFC West leading Los Angeles Rams host the resurgent New England Patriots. Both teams come into this one on a roll, with the Rams winners of three of their last four games, and the Patriots victorious in four of their last five.

As always with a nationally televised game, sides and totals are sure to get plenty of action. With the Rams 5.5-point favorites, and the game total set to 45, check out our picks and full game preview here. We’ve also come up with a same game parlay at huge odds, along with some advice for your daily fantasy lineup.

This game features some juicy matchups on both sides of the ball. For my player prop pick of the game, I’m keying in specifically on the Rams quarterback versus the vaunted Patriots defense.

Jared Goff under 270.5 passing yards

Playable down to 261.5 passing yards

Yes, Goff has eclipsed this number in seven of twelve games this season. In those seven games, he averaged 41.3 pass attempts, compared to the 32.2 he averages when going under this number. Before you point out the obvious (I’m fully aware that more pass attempts typically leads to more yards), let’s consider the matchup.

The Patriots are allowing opposing quarterbacks 236 yards per game, eleventh fewest in the NFL, and the second least pass attempts per game, at 30.8. The Patriots’ strength defensively continues to be their secondary, led by cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson. Additionally, the Patriots’ opponents average 59 plays per game this season, second least in the NFL and feature the most run-heavy gamescript. Both of which are conducive to keeping the clock running.

While not reflected in the raw sack totals, the Patriots have been effective in pressuring the opposing quarterbacks off their initial reads.  New England ranks second in the NFL with a pressure rate of 27 percent (combines hurries and sacks). Goff rates as the third-worst quarterback in the NFL when pressured, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt.

The lynchpin of Goff’s pass protection, left tackle Andrew Whitworth, will miss his fourth straight game. To offset his absence, the Rams have adjusted their gameplan accordingly. In the last three games, Goff threw 80 percent of his passes less than ten yards from the line of scrimmage, up from the 70 percent in his games with Whitworth. The Rams are looking to get the ball out quicker to avoid pressure.  Not only will this avoid chunk yardage plays, but should also prove tougher vs the physical, press-covering cornerbacks of the Patriots.

Conclusion

So, while this number resides below Goff’s per game average, I see several outs for the under. Between both teams looking to establish the run game and the Rams’ shorter passing attack, I’m expecting Goff’s yardage totals to be curbed. I don’t see him exceeding 37 pass attempts, and I have his yards projected in the 240s.

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