Best NFL Week 15 Prop Bet for Sunday Night Football: The Bake Show coming to New Jersey?

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield walks off field during loss to Las Vegas Raiders
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL · 1 year ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Week 15’s Sunday slate wraps up with the Cleveland Browns coming into New Jersey to face off against the New York Giants.  The Browns are firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture, with the Giants jockeying for position in the NFC East.

The Giants will be without their starting quarterback, Daniel Jones.  As such, the visiting Browns are currently 6.5 point favorites, with an game total of over/under 44.5.  The intrigue around this matchup is abundant, so make sure you prepare yourself by checking out our full betting preview and picks for the game.

With my player prop pick of the game, I’m looking at a player who has seemed to have got his swagger back as of late.

Baker Mayfield over 224.5 passing yards

Line available at publishing. Playable up to 232.5.

Yes, I played Cooks earlier, and now I’m shifting to Baker (that’s Brandin and Mayfield, for those wondering). Food puns aside, this is one of the rare instances where I’m seeing value in an over for a passing yardage prop. When you strip out the two games plagued by game-altering winds (Weeks 8 and 10), Mayfield is averaging 23o yards per game and 12 yards per completion. But over the last three games, Mayfield has found a groove–averaging 312 yards and 13 yards per completion.

With running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt leading the way, the Browns are a run-first team. They run the ball at the third highest rate in the NFL–50.6%. The Giants’ defense, however, has been strong against the run. The Giants have allowed the ninth least running back rush yards per game (83) and the eight least yards per carry (3.9).

In the secondary, the Giants will be without star cornerback James Bradberry on Sunday. Bradberry has played all but two defensive snaps this season, typically matched one-on-one with the opponents best receiver. Beyond Bradberry, the Giants will be down two additional cornerbacks due to injury. In fact, there is only one healthy cornerback on the active roster (Isaac Yiadom). New York will be relying on either practice squad players or out-of-position safeties to line up versus the Browns receivers.

I fully expect the Giants to remain committed to stopping the run in this game. To offset the Giants strength, Mayfield will dial up the play-action pass. He’s the fourth most efficient passer in play-action (9.7 yards per attempt), and the Browns have been running play-action 10% more over the Browns last three games. Versus the Giants depleted secondary, I expect even more.

I have Mayfield’s yards projected in the high 240s for this one.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL picks. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5+ on any Sports Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Team Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game ML in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$500

Get Your First Bet Risk-Free Up To $500

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets With PointsBet's Second Chance

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply