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Best NFL Week 15 Prop Bet for Sunday Night Football: The Bake Show coming to New Jersey?

Best NFL Week 15 Prop Bet for Sunday Night Football: The Bake Show coming to New Jersey?

Week 15’s Sunday slate wraps up with the Cleveland Browns coming into New Jersey to face off against the New York Giants.  The Browns are firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture, with the Giants jockeying for position in the NFC East.

The Giants will be without their starting quarterback, Daniel Jones.  As such, the visiting Browns are currently 6.5 point favorites, with an game total of over/under 44.5.  The intrigue around this matchup is abundant, so make sure you prepare yourself by checking out our full betting preview and picks for the game.

With my player prop pick of the game, I’m looking at a player who has seemed to have got his swagger back as of late.

Baker Mayfield over 224.5 passing yards

Line available at publishing. Playable up to 232.5.

Yes, I played Cooks earlier, and now I’m shifting to Baker (that’s Brandin and Mayfield, for those wondering). Food puns aside, this is one of the rare instances where I’m seeing value in an over for a passing yardage prop. When you strip out the two games plagued by game-altering winds (Weeks 8 and 10), Mayfield is averaging 23o yards per game and 12 yards per completion. But over the last three games, Mayfield has found a groove–averaging 312 yards and 13 yards per completion.

With running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt leading the way, the Browns are a run-first team. They run the ball at the third highest rate in the NFL–50.6%. The Giants’ defense, however, has been strong against the run. The Giants have allowed the ninth least running back rush yards per game (83) and the eight least yards per carry (3.9).

In the secondary, the Giants will be without star cornerback James Bradberry on Sunday. Bradberry has played all but two defensive snaps this season, typically matched one-on-one with the opponents best receiver. Beyond Bradberry, the Giants will be down two additional cornerbacks due to injury. In fact, there is only one healthy cornerback on the active roster (Isaac Yiadom). New York will be relying on either practice squad players or out-of-position safeties to line up versus the Browns receivers.

I fully expect the Giants to remain committed to stopping the run in this game. To offset the Giants strength, Mayfield will dial up the play-action pass. He’s the fourth most efficient passer in play-action (9.7 yards per attempt), and the Browns have been running play-action 10% more over the Browns last three games. Versus the Giants depleted secondary, I expect even more.

I have Mayfield’s yards projected in the high 240s for this one.

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Last updated: Sun 20th December 2020

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