After seeing a historic performance from Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in Game 1 of the West Finals, we can only hope tonight’s Game 1 of Cavaliers vs Knicks lives up to the hype. New York has not played competitive basketball in over a week, while the Cavaliers are just coming off their 7-game series win over the Pistons. Who lands the first punch in the Eastern Conference Finals?
Tip-off is set for 8 pm ET on ESPN, I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay at +332 odds, featuring a couple of familiar names. Don’t forget, our NBA Predictions page will feature daily Predictions on all upcoming Conference Finals and NBA Finals games, so be sure to bookmark it. Now let’s jump into my SGP bet for Game 1 of the East Finals!
New York Knicks -7.5 (-105)
Jalen Brunson 2+ Made Threes (-290)
Donovan Mitchell to Score 25+ Points (-162)
Same Game Parlay odds: +332
New York Knicks -7.5 (-105)
It is a quick turnaround for the Cleveland Cavaliers after their heroic win in Game 7 over the Pistons on Sunday. They now head to Madison Square Garden for Game 1 of the East Finals facing a Knicks team that’s been resting for the past 8 days or so. Game 7 hangover is something the Cavaliers need to be careful with here. We’ve seen teams struggle to shift their focus onto the new series after a grueling 7 game match-up already this season. The prime example of this were the Philadelphia 76ers who lost Game 1 of Round 2 vs the Knicks by 39 points, right after their Game 7 win over Boston. I’m curious to see how the Cavs react to Game 1 here, they lost both meetings at MSG in the regular season giving up 119 and 126 points respectively.
Ever since those back-to-back 1-point losses to Atlanta the Knicks have been a different team. They’ve won 7 games in a row since then by an average of 27.5 points, posting an offensive efficiency of 130.5 and a defensive efficiency of 103. New York will come out with fresh legs here, there’s even a chance OG Anunoby plays after recent reports suggesting his hamstring injury has healed. We’ve already seen the Cavaliers struggling physically in their series against the Pistons, a couple of those losses can be attributed to fatigue. The Knicks have played 4 less games than the Cavaliers have this postseason, at this stage of the season that should show. It’s hard not to back the Knicks in the opener. They’ve been firing on all cylinders this postseason, Cleveland had just 1 day in between games which is far too little to make the necessary adjustments for an in-form team like the Knicks are currently. I’ll take the home side to cover in Game 1 and set the tone for the series.
Jalen Brunson 2+ Made Threes (-290)
This year’s postseason has been a vastly different experience for Jalen Brunson compared to previous years. Unlike in years prior, the Knicks no longer depend solely on him carrying the offense to win games and this has done wonders for the efficiency numbers of Brunson. So far in 10 games played he’s making 48.5% of his shots from the field and almost 41% of his threes. The 76ers couldn’t do much about him in Round 2 as the Knicks steamrolled their way through in 4 games, Brunson shot the deep ball at 44.8% efficiency on 3.3 makes per game. Until the Cavaliers show me they can slow him down, I’ll just continue backing him to do well from the perimeter in this series. In 85 games played in the regular season and playoffs this year, Brunson has cleared this line 57 times which comes out to a success rate of 67%. That number has remained stable for the most part in games played at MSG, with this bet cashing at a 67% rate there as well (28/42 games). Let’s back Brunson to do well in the series opener.
Donovan Mitchell to Score 25+ Points (-162)
Donovan Mitchell held his end of the bargain in Game 7 against the Pistons, going for 26 points and 8 assists while taking really good care of the basketball resulting in zero turnovers. I am of the opinion that scoring the ball in this series will be a lot easier for Mitchell as the Knicks just aren’t as physical of a team like the Pistons are. If the 3 regular season meetings are any indicator, Mitchell could be in for a really solid series in his first ever NBA Conference Finals. The New York native has averaged 29.3 points in those 3 games, causing problems defensively for the Knicks. Historically he’s done really well in head-to-head meetings, clearing this line 11 times in 17 meetings. His last 3 of 4 visits to MSG have seen him go off for 30+ points, he’s averaging 25.4 ppg in the last 10 games played in this building. Let’s see if there’s any freshness left in those legs after the grueling 7 game series vs Detroit, I’m backing Mitchell to go off in this one.
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