College football Week 11 Tuesday parlay picks at mega (+600) odds: Expect points in the battle of Ohio

Ohio Football quarterback Kurtis Rourke
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Week 9 was another wild one in college football, as we saw more upsets and a ton of nail-biting thrillers throughout the weekend. This week’s schedule promises to be no different, with a number of intriguing contests taking place.

To kick off this week’s slate, we have some MACtion action on Tuesday. This midweek slate looks to be another good one and offers some compelling matchups. Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Tuesday’s action.

Ohio vs Miami OH over 50.5 (-114)

Ball State +11.5 (-110)

Eastern Michigan -7.5 (-105)

Parlay odds: +600

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

For this parlay, we are going with one game over the total, one underdog against the spread and one favorite against the spread. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.

Catch our NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week

Ohio vs Miami OH over 50.5 (-114)

These teams are both trending up heading into this matchup. Ohio is fresh off a massive win over Buffalo and the Bobcats’ offense is clicking on all cylinders of late. Ohio is 36th in EPA per pass and 40th in EPA per play on the season, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has 21 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this season.

However, the Ohio defense is still a major issue, ranking outside the top 100 in opponent EPA per pass and EPA per play. That should allow Brett Gabbert and this Miami Ohio offense to see success at home. Gabbert was an all-conference quarterback in preseason but was injured in the Redhawks’ opener. In his return, this offense scored 27 points and looked rejuvenated. Both teams should put up points here, so I’ll side with the over while it’s under the key number of 51.

Ball State +11.5 (-110) vs Toledo

Toledo is the team to beat in the MAC at the moment, but Ball State is still being undervalued here. The Cardinals’ rushing attack features the nation’s 8th-ranked rusher in Carson Steele, who should see success against a below-average Toledo rush defense. The Rockets’ defense is 75th in opponent EPA per rush and 68th in EPA per play, so Ball State quarterback John Paddock shouldn’t have much trouble leading successful drives.

The bigger issue for Toledo is the status of quarterback Dequann Finn. Finn is explosive with his arm and legs, but he missed last week’s contest due to injury. As his status is still in question, it’s tough to back Toledo here. With this being a battle for first place in the MAC West division, getting Ball State as 11.5-point underdogs is too good to pass up.

Be sure to check out our full Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets predictions

Eastern Michigan -7.5 (-105) over Akron

To close out this mega parlay, we’re going with Eastern Michigan laying over a touchdown on the road. Ordinarily, this would be cause for concern, but Akron is a mess. While the Zips have been competitive, they still don’t have a conference win and sit at just 1-8 on the season. Additionally, in its only games against quality conference opposition this season, Akron was thoroughly outclassed by Ohio and Miami Ohio.

Eastern Michigan is only slightly worse than those aforementioned teams and should hold a serious edge in the trenches. With Akron’s lackluster defense ranking outside the top 100 in most advanced metrics, the Eagles’ top 25 rushing attack should control the pace and tempo of this game. As long as Eastern Michigan remains focused, I expect a 2-score victory here.

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