Ricky Dimon
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It has been a soggy French Open so far and the forecast continues to be poor until the weekend, but hopefully the sun will come out for some tennis on Wednesday – beyond just the 2 courts that have roofs. The start of second-round action features a showdown between Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka, while on the men’s side Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas are taking the court. Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to be made on the Day 4 schedule.
Jelena Ostapenko -2.5 games over Clara Tauson (-120)
Jelena Ostapenko is among my outright picks to win the women’s title at +5000 odds. The Latvian has done it before at this tournament (2017) and can do it again. There is no reason to get off the Ostapenko bandwagon following a routine first-round victory over Jaqueline Adina Cristian. Clara Tauson is a slightly tougher opponent, but Ostapenko beat her earlier this year on an indoor hard court – albeit in a final-set tiebreaker. Clay gives the world #11 more of an advantage. It has been her best surface throughout her career and she recently reached the Rome quarterfinals for the 4th time (including 1 semifinal), losing only to world #2 Aryna Sabalenka. Tauson is no slouch, but she has nowhere near the history of success that Ostapenko has on the Grand Slam level.
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Matteo Arnaldi -2.5 games over Alexandre Muller (-110)
Matteo Arnaldi has been one of the tour’s breakout stars dating back to last summer. He is no stranger to the big stage, having advanced to the US Open 4th round in 2023 before helping Italy win the Davis Cup title (yes, that was mostly Sinner’s doing – but it was still an impressive and valuable experience for Arnaldi). The only thing Alexandre Muller has going for him in this matchup is home-court advantage in France. However, Arnaldi just faced another Frenchman (and a better one) in a hostile atmosphere and had little trouble coming through that first-rounder against Arthur Fils. Muller did well to reach the Rome 4th round earlier this month but otherwise has done nothing of note this season.
Parlay: Ons Jabeur ML over Maria Camila Osorio Serrano and Hubert Hurkacz ML over Brandon Nakashima (-119)
Ons Jabeur has been off her game for the most part in 2024, but a return to the major scene should be just what the doctor ordered. The Tunisian is a 3-time major runner-up and advanced to the French Open quarterfinals in 2023. Jabeur looked good in her opening match, taking care of Sachia Vickery 6-3, 6-2. As for Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, she has played 9 straight main-tour events without winning multiple main-draw matches on any occasion.
Meanwhile, Hubert Hurkacz required 5 sets to beat Shintaro Mochizuki on Sunday but that should give him a wakeup call. Brandon Nakashima owns just 6 tour-level wins this season and is struggling down at #84 in the world.
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