Jared Smith's NFL Week 14 best bets and market insights: Browns and Bills have bounceback appeal

Josh Allen Bills
Photo of Jared Smith

Jared Smith

NFL· 1 month ago

Show Bio

Jared Smith, a versatile host and analyst with over 10 years of experience in sports media and two decades as a sports bettor, has joined the Pickswise team as a lead betting analyst. Smith will serve as a full-time content creator, producing informative and engaging content every day across multiple platforms.

The stretch run is underway as just five weeks remain in a wild and wacky NFL season. This will be the last week that teams are on bye, and the Super Bowl market is coming into focus, as I discussed in this week’s “Back to the Futures” column. Some things to keep in mind as we reach the final stages of the regular season…

The lines are as sharp and the market is as efficient as it’s been all season, as has been the case with each passing week. Therefore, regular spread and total bets have less value to me, and teasers offer more value. It’s a simple concept, the more accurate the market becomes, the more advantageous it is to move lines in your favor, which is exactly what we do when we tease spreads.

We will start to apply that lesson this week as I am adding a 3-team, 10-point teaser to my best bets card for the first time this season. Last week’s picks went 1-2, with both favorites losing outright. Not my best work, and I’d be lying if I said I was having a good season betting on the NFL, as my record indicates. But I am feeling very good about the futures portfolio I’ve built, and there’s still 5 weeks left to turn things around. Onward to the selections.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Browns -1

*Bet Sunday at Wynn, would play up to -2.5

This was one of the two NFL bets I detailed in this week’s “Early Birds” column, and the market has agreed with me so far. The lookahead here was Ravens -1, it then reopened Browns -1 after Baltimore’s loss in Pittsburgh. Since then, there’s been movement towards the Browns, and this line has even touched -3 at some shops, despite BetMGM’s Darren Darby reporting relatively split action on both sides. That tells me the sharp money prefers Cleveland.

“The Ravens haven’t been playing amazing football lately, they should have lost at home two weeks ago and are only getting more injured as the season progresses, ” said WynnBET Trader Sawyer Johnson. “The Browns have had a bye to rest up and recover from those injuries.”

The schedule quirk certainly favors Cleveland, who have had two weeks off to sit and stew over that tough primetime loss in Baltimore, and I expect the Browns to bounce back. 

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Bucs

Bills +3.5

*Bet Sunday at Superbook, would play down to +3

The Bills were my other early bet in the NFL this week, and the market has leaned towards Buffalo, as you have to pay for the hook at most sportsbooks now. At the time of publication, I saw a +3.5 (-115) available at Circa and Caesars, and a 3.5 (-120) at DraftKings. At that price, I might just play the +3 at +100 or +105, I also think the money line is an attractive bet here at +160 or longer and I will likely be adding it for a half-unit or so.

It’s been a rollercoaster season for Buffalo, who have not won or lost consecutive games since Weeks 4-5. That type of trend should never be the sole reason for placing a bet, but it correlates with the analytics. Football Outsiders ranks the Bills as the highest variance team in the NFL this season, which translates to me as Buffalo is a bad team to bet on as a favorite. However as a dog, they’re 5-1 against the number and 4-2 straight up in the last two seasons. They also won their only game outright as a dog this season at Kansas City.

“The Bills feel like the right side, it’s a good buy-low spot for them and the Bucs are overrated,” said TwinSpires Trading Analyst Zachary Lucas, who has been down on Tampa all season. The Bucs’ injuries in the secondary are a huge concern for me, and it should help a potent Bills passing offense that was subdued by Bill Belichick (and Mother Nature) on Monday night.

6-Point Teaser -120 (1.5u)

Seahawks –1

Broncos -2

*Bet Wednesday at DraftKings, lines widely available at time of posting 

Both teaser legs this week move favorites through both key numbers in relatively low total games, which is ideal, and why I’m comfortable risking an extra half unit. The Texans offense gained just 114 yards against the Colts on Sunday and now faces more QB questions between Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills. It probably doesn’t matter who is under center for Houston, because on the other side, Russell Wilson seems to be getting healthier by the week, which is great news for Seattle’s faint playoff hopes.

This is a perfect sell-high spot for the Lions, whose first win on Sunday felt like a Super Bowl victory. The Broncos are also coming off a frustrating loss to the Chiefs that saw steady Teddy Bridgewater throw two brutal picks, and the special teams commit another fluky turnover on a muffed punt. I don’t trust the Lions to handle prosperity well, and only needing Denver to win by a field goal at home is a very attractive teaser option.

10-Point Teaser -120

Jaguars +19.5

Chargers -0.5

Packers -1.5

*Bet Wednesday at DraftKings, lines widely available at time of posting 

Credit to “Let’s Bet It” producer Jack Harrison for turning me onto these a few weeks ago. I gave one out on Thanksgiving, and they’ve slowly grown on me since. As discussed earlier in the column, the market becomes more efficient as the season drags on, so moving the lines 10 points, in theory, should offer slightly more value than it did in the earlier weeks, especially moving double-digit favorites through the key numbers of 3 and 7. In the last five seasons, teams favored by 10 or more are just 31-36-1 ATS this but 56-12 straight up, so if you pick your spots right, I believe these can be profitable.

There are two of those instances on the board this week that stand out. The Chargers will face either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm for the Giants, and despite LA missing pieces, as long as Justin Herbert is playing, I feel confident they’ll win the game. Same for the Packers, who are fresh off the bye with Aaron Rodgers’ toe hopefully healthy. Rodgers truly owns the Bears in his career to the tune of a 20-7 record ATS and 22-5 SU. The line didn’t move at all once Justin Fields was announced as the starter, and I don’t see the rookie winning outright in his first trip to Lambeau Field.

The Jaguars have some bounce-back appeal after a tough loss to the Rams, and I’m confident they can keep things close against the Titans and Mike Vrabel, who are just 3-6 ATS as favorites of 7+ points during his tenure with Tennessee.

Last week: 1-2, -1.95u (Sides: 0-2 / Totals: 0-0 / Teasers: 1-0)

2021 season: 32-34-1, -7.30u (Sides: 21-22-1 / Totals: 1-4 / Teasers: 10-8)

Pickswise is the home of NFL Picks. Check out our latest playoff picks and round-by-round analysis as well as our free Super Bowl predictions.

See All
BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if either team scores a TD on Championship Weekend!

Bet $10 on the Money Line for any NFL team

Win $200 if either team scores a touchdown in the game

Winnings paid in free bets

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 CASH on any NFL team to win on Championship Weekend!

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Bet $5 on any NFL team to win their next playoff game

If your team wins, YOU WIN $150 - in CASH!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$280

Bet $5, Win $280 on Any NFL team to Win on Championship Weekend!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ any NFL playoff game Money Line

Win $280 in credits if your team wins the game

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 - Regardless of Outcome!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+.

Bet $20 on any game in any sport!

Win $200 - no matter whether your initial bet won or lost!

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If ANY NBA Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NBA game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game makes a 3-pointer

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If A Goal Is Scored In ANY NHL Game!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NHL game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game scores a goal

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,001

Get a $1,001 First Bet Match + A FREE NBA JERSEY!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,001

Receive a free bet matching your initial stake up to $1,001 + a FREE NBA JERSEY!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$400

Get a $400 Risk-Free Bet on the Breeders' Cup!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code PICKS400

Place a bet on the Breeders' Cup

Receive a refund if your first bet loses up to $400

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.