Man vs Machine: Pickswise expert vs the computer model NFL Week 7 best bets

Patrick Mahomes NFL Teaser same game parlay
Photo of Andrew Ortenberg

Andrew Ortenberg

NFL· 1 month ago

Show Bio

I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

Man vs Machine

Welcome to the 2021 edition of Man vs Machine. This NFL season, I’ll be making my five best NFL bets each week. Our Pickswise supercomputer will make its best five bets, and then we’ll compare. May the best man (or machine) win.

Our computer model gives probabilities and projections for the main NFL betting markets (spread, total & money line), best bets for spread, total, money line, and same game parlays. It also features prop bet probabilities for first and anytime touchdown scorer, plus individual player projections for passing, rushing, receiving yards, and touchdowns for betting and fantasy use.

For more information on how the supercomputer works and how it generates picks, scroll down to the bottom of this page. Now let’s look at the picks:

My 5 best bets

Chiefs -4.5 over Titans

I had the Chiefs last week in this column, and they came through with a big win over Washington. After a few losses piled up, Kansas City all of a sudden became undervalued in the market. The Titans already had one of the league’s worst secondaries, and now they’re down multiple starters in that unit. On the other side, the Chiefs are getting Chris Jones here.

Giants +3 over Panthers

I also picked against the Panthers last week and it worked out. I’m expecting it to work out once again here. Carolina’s 3-0 start was clearly very fraudulent. They got to play the Jets, Texans, and Saints during a week where New Orleans was decimated by COVID. Sam Darnold is regressing more with each passing week, and there’s no reason for the Panthers to be this large of a road favorite.

Bears +12.5 over Buccaneers

All the talk surrounding the Bears this season has been about the quarterback situation and Justin Fields. As such, it’s been flying a bit under the radar, but Chicago’s defense is back. They’ve been much improved, and already held Tom Brady in check last year. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are both out for the Bucs and they’ve got plenty of injuries on defense as well, so the Bears should be able to keep this one relatively close.

Eagles +2.5 over Raiders

I’m really not giving the Raiders too much credit for beating the Broncos last week. As we all just saw on Thursday Night Football, Denver just stinks right now. One of Philly’s main strengths is their interior defensive line, while interior offensive line is a weakness of the Raiders.

Colts +4.0 over 49ers

The Colts have won two of their past three games, and their one loss in that span was in overtime to an elite Ravens team in a game they led almost the entire way. There’s a lot of rain in the forecast for this one, which may play to Indy’s advantage. The Colts’ defense is susceptible to the pass but they’re elite against the run, and both teams project to be running a ton here in the heavy wind and rain.

Computer picks

Titans +4.5 over Chiefs, Jets +7 over Patriots, Ravens -6.5 over Bengals, Eagles +2.5 over Raiders, Colts +4 over 49ers

The computer and I are involved in three of the same games for Week 7. We agree on the Eagles and Colts, but we’re on opposite sides of that Chiefs/Titans game. Our model is also going with the Jets and Ravens to round out their selections. Bold of them to back Zach Wilson on the road. After going 2-3 last week, I’ve now fallen to 16-14 on the year. The computer had an impressive 4-1 showing last week, and they’re now at 19-10-1. It’s a tight race, now let’s see if I can catch up in Week 7….

2021 Season Results

Pickswise Expert (16-14)
Pickswise Computer (19-10-1)

Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NFL game. You can also view all of our computer picks here.

How are the pre-game win probabilities calculated?
The Pickswise supercomputer creates pre-game probabilities using machine learning techniques as inputs to a Monte Carlo approach. This means we simulate a sporting event 10,000 times, catering for the deep range of outcomes and probabilities within a given event. We first predict the performance of each individual player based on hundreds of algorithmic variabilities, which we use to run our event simulations.

Why do the win probabilities and predictions change over time?
The probabilities are dynamic in nature and get updated as new information becomes available. This includes but is not limited to team news, weather conditions, and moves in the betting market.

What does a ‘value bet’ mean?
A value bet is where we’ve identified that the probability of the event occurring is more likely than the listed sportsbook odds. Taking these bets gives you an increased chance of being a successful gambler.

How is the change in win probability calculated during a live game?
Live win probability is a statistical metric that projects the team’s likelihood of winning at any given point by simulating the remainder of the game. Based on the performance of historical teams in the same situation and the current state of the game, the model updates in real-time following every major event during the game.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

See All


Bet $10, Win $200 If Your Team Covers +40 Points!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $10+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team covers +40 points

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Bet $20, Get $200 - Regardless of Outcome!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+.

Bet $20 on any game in any sport!

As soon as your game is over, you'll receive a $200 bonus - no matter whether your initial bet won or lost!

Caesars Sportsbook


Get a $1,001 Free Bet + A FREE NBA JERSEY!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,001

Win or lose, you'll receive a free bet matching your initial stake - up to $1,001! You'll also be given a gift card for a FREE NBA JERSEY!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF



Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook


Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight


Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.



Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing


$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.



Get a $400 Risk-Free Bet on the Breeders' Cup!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code PICKS400

Place a bet on the Breeders' Cup

Receive a refund if your first bet loses up to $400

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.