Ricky Dimon
The MLB week wraps up with Sunday Night Baseball between the New York Mets and New York Yankees in the Bronx. It’s the rubber match of a 3-game series, with the Yankees having taken the opener before the Mets hit back on Saturday. I’m red hot in the early stages of the season, going 3-for-5 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632 and +439 odds, 5-1 on YRFI/NRFI picks and 26-15-1 on best bets. Let’s keep the momentum going!
With tonight’s all-New York showdown set for 7:00 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to break down my SGP. Also don’t forget to check out all of our MLB picks for Sunday’s slate.
Yankees ML (-166)
Under 8.5 (+102)
Max Fried to record 8+ strikeouts (+290)
Parlay odds: +850
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Yankees starter Max Fried racking up a whole bunch of strikeouts would obviously work well with both a victory for the home team and the under. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
Yankees ML (-166)
Fried is taking the mound for the Yankees and to say that is good news for the home team would be a gross understatement. The left-hander has been incredible so far in his first season in pinstripes, sporting a 6-0 record with a 1.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a 52-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ration in 56.2 innings of work. The Yankees are 8-1 in his 9 appearances, with their only loss coming via a 2-1 decision in 11 innings against Seattle. Fried and company should be able to find the wind column again on Sunday. The Mets are just 12-12 on the road so far this year compared to 17-5 at home.
Under 8.5 (+102)
The Mets are countering with David Peterson and he should be able to play his part in an overall low-scoring affair. The southpaw comes in at 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. Peterson has delivered 2 consecutive quality starts, which is nothing new. In fact, he does not have a poor outing this entire year. Peterson’s worst line is 3 runs allowed in 5.1 innings. In his last 4 appearances the 29-year-old has surrendered just 7 earned runs in 22.1 innings. The first 2 contests in this series produced 8 and 5 runs, while the Mets have played 6 consecutive games that have resulted in 8 runs or fewer. Count on that trend continuing.
Max Fried to record 8+ strikeouts (+290)
Fried is averaging close to 1 strikeout per inning and it would not be the craziest thing to see him long 8 innings on Sunday. The Yankees have allowed his pitch count to reach the 100 mark in 3 of his last 5 starts and he has thrown more than 90 pitches on every single occasion in 2025. Fried mowed down 8 batters earlier this month against San Diego and his K count went as high as 11 during an April victory over Detroit. The 31-year-old now has a favorable matchup on his hands against plenty of familiar foes. Pete Alonso has struck out 12 times in 36 at-bats against Fried; Brandon Nimmo 11 times in 27 at-bats; Juan Soto 9 times in 27 at-bats; Jeff McNeil 6 times in 31 at-bats; Francisco Lindor 6 times in 28 at-bats; Starling Marte 5 times in 21 at-bats.
