MLB LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay picks: Brandon Pfaadt gets hit hard at +1032 odds

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) reacts after being unable to field a ground ball during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
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The Dodgers are 2 games into the postseason and 1 loss away from their season being over. That’s how quickly the MLB playoffs can turn on you if you’re not prepared, and so far, the Dodgers haven’t looked like the same team from the regular season. For this critical Game 3 matchup in Arizona, I have a Same Game Parlay that pays out at better than 10/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Diamondbacks +1.5 (-128)

Freddie Freeman 2+ bases (-150)

Mookie Betts to record a run (-195)

Brandon Pfaadt under 3.5 strikeouts (-118)

Same Game Parlay odds: +1032

Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 over Los Angeles Dodgers (-128)

From Opening Day to the all-star break to the late stages of the season, the Dodgers were always a favorite to win the World Series. As the winner of the NL West, Los Angeles was able to rest and relax as they waited for their opponent. However, it seems the rest was the opposite of what they needed. The Dodgers lost Game 1 and 2 on their home field by a combined 15-4, so the two games at Dodger Stadium were never that close — especially Game 1. The worst part about going down 2-0 is that the Dodgers already used their 2 best pitchers which means they had to choose between Ryan Pepiot and Lance Lynn for their Game 3 starter. No offense to the rookie or Big Country, but I would not want them on the mound with the season on the line. Lynn was a last-second trade-deadline acquisition for the Dodgers, which was sort of surprising since Lynn had a 6.47 ERA with the White Sox. But in classic fashion he immediately got better in L.A. But that success didn’t last forever, and he finished with a 4.36 ERA for the Dodgers in the regular season.

The Diamondbacks have yet to lose a game in the postseason. For a team that was given no respect entering the playoffs, it’s been a truly miraculous run. Arizona beat Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta in Milwaukee in the wild-card round and then smashed Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller in L.A. in the first two games of the NLDS. The Snakes are playing their best baseball of the season, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. For Game 3, the Diamondbacks will use WC Game 1 starter Brandon Pfaadt. Admittedly, the rookie wasn’t great against the Brewers (3 runs and 7 hits in just 2.2 innings) — but I would be very surprised to see him go more than three innings on Wednesday. Torey Lovullo will have a very short leash for the rookie and won’t hesitate to go to his suddenly lights-out bullpen.

Check out our Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

Freddie Freeman 2+ bases (-150)

The Dodgers faced Pfaadt twice in the regular season, and there were several Dodgers who would be Hall of Famers if all they did was face the rookie. One of those hitters is Freddie Freeman, who is 4-for-6 with 2 doubles and a home run in his career against Pfaadt. Freeman’s successful track record against Pfaadt doesn’t surprise me in the slightest because the veteran had a 21 Run Value against four-seam fastballs in the regular season, the fourth-highest rate in baseball. As you might be able to guess, Pfaadt throws his fastball more than any other pitch, and it’s not a good fastball either.

The rookie threw it 45.4% of the time in the regular season and hitters had a .325 batting average and a .650 slugging percentage against that pitch. It’s not a lively fastball either since it sits just 93.4 MPH. As the away team, I’m expecting Freeman to get 4 or 5 at-bats, so I like his chances of getting at least two bases.

Mookie Betts to record a run (-195)

Similar to Freeman, Betts has an exceptional track record against Pfaadt. Betts is 3-for-5 with a double in his career against the Diamondbacks rookie. Not only that, but he also has a 0% whiff rate against Pfaadt — which means the rookie’s fastball and sweeper combination doesn’t fool him. Betts has also walked once in his career against Pfaadt, so overall, it just seems like Betts sees the ball well out of the rookie’s hand. Plus, Betts has scored in both games of the NLDS. That’s pretty impressive since Los Angeles has only scored 4 times in 2 games and he’s accounted for 2 of the runs. Between having great success against Pfaadt in his career and hitting in front of Freeman, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez, I like the chances of Los Angeles’ leadoff man to score.

Brandon Pfaadt under 3.5 strikeouts (-118)

This leg of the Same Game Parlay drives up the payout to the most significant extent. Taking the Diamondbacks to keep the game close and 2 Dodgers hitters to do well doesn’t correlate, and then adding in Arizona’s starter to go under his strikeout total drives the payout through the roof.

This pick is based on 2 things. The first is Pfaadt’s history against the Dodgers’ lineup. The rookie allowed 10 runs, 14 hits, 2 home runs and 4 walks in 8.2 innings to the Dodgers in the regular season. And the top 3 hitters in the Los Angeles lineup — Betts, Freeman and Will Smith — are a combined 8-for-14 lifetime against Pfaadt. Second, Torey Lovullo will have a very short leash on Pfaadt. The rookie lasted just 2.2 innings against the Brewers, and the second Lovullo sniffs a rally coming he won’t hesitate to take him out. I’m expecting only 2 or 3 strikeouts for the Arizona rookie in Game 3.

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