Ricky Dimon
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The week in Major League Baseball wraps up with 15 games on Sunday. It begins at 12:05 pm ET with the Red Sox and Tigers being showcased on Peacock before the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week features the Braves and Mets. In between we have fun matchups including Angels vs Astros, Yankees vs Marlins and Cubs vs Blue Jays.
The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Saturday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-110)
I lost a NRFI bet on Twins vs Phillies yesterday, but I’m not going to be deterred by the fact that Philadelphia starter Taijuan Walker could not throw the ball over the plate in the first inning. It’s not like Minnesota did anything. Walker issued 3 free passes in the opening frame and gave up a run without giving up a hit. I don’t anticipate Ranger Suarez being so generous this afternoon. It took a while for Suarez to heat up this season after returning from injury in May, but he is rolling now. The southpaw has allowed only 3 runs in 12.0 innings this month, invoking memories of his dominant June performance in which he compiled a 1.08 ERA.
The Twins are countering with Sonny Gray, who has made 4 consecutive quality starts and comes in with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Gray has surrendered a first-inning run only once in his last 8 appearances. Given the right-hander’s fine overall form and the fact that Minnesota’s lineup is 3-for-15 combined lifetime against Suarez, I like the NRFI.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners: YRFI (-102)
With Kyle Bradish of the Mariners going up against Bryce Miller of the Mariners, the YRFI appears to be the way to go. For Seattle, Eugenio Suarez is 2-for-5 all time against Bradish and Ty France is 2-for-6. Cal Raleigh is 1-for-4 with a homer run. Baltimore hasn’t seen Miller a ton, but Anthony Santander is 2-for-2 lifetime with a homer and Ryan O’Hearn is 1-for-2 (Adam Frazier is also 2-for-2, but if he bats in the first inning the Orioles will have already scored a run).
Bradish has not been any good in the early stages of recent games. He gave up 3 runs in the first 3 innings at Toronto on August 1, 4 runs in the first 4 innings at Philadelphia on July 26 and 1 run in the first 2 innings at Tampa Bay on July 21. Miller has a 4.20 ERA on the season, including a 5.91 mark so far in August. He faced Baltimore on June 24 and allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4.1 innings of work.
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