Ricky Dimon
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The Major League Baseball week continues with a 10-game slate on Thursday. It is headlined by the Angels squaring off against the Rangers on FS1 and wraps up with the Dodgers hosting the White Sox. We also get a trio of afternoon games, including the Rays visiting the Athletics. On the whole there are plenty of options with which to make some enticing YRFI/NRFI plays.
This market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my best YRFI/NRFI bets for Thursday as I try to maintain momentum from my 2-0 record this past Saturday. Also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: NRFI (-102)
Aaron Nola is taking the mound for Philadelphia, which is generally good news for that team even though his numbers are unspectacular in 2023. Nola is just 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA, but his WHIP is a solid 1.10 and he has 84 strikeouts compared to only 23 walks in 88.0 innings of work. The right-hander has pitched a clean first inning in 3 consecutive starts as well.
Arizona’s Ryne Nelson is in his first full season at the major-league level and he has been serviceable of late. Nelson has lowered his ERA from 6.20 to 4.95 over his past 5 starts, during which only Colorado has victimized him with a first-inning run. The Phillies have almost no familiarity with him and the little that they do have isn’t encouraging. Nelson faced Philly on May 23 and surrendered just 1 run on 3 hits and no walks in 6.0 innings.
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Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-122)
With Sonny Gray toeing the rubber to begin Thursday’s game between the Twins and Tigers, Minnesota should be able to get NRFI bettors halfway home. Gray has been stellar in 2023, with a 4-1 record and 2.25 ERA to go along with 76 strikeouts in 72.0 innings. The righty has made a whopping 9 straight appearances without giving up a run in the first inning, and there is no reason to think this Detroit lineup is the one that will end this streak. In fact, the Tigers are dead last by a country mile in Major League Baseball in runs scored with 241.
The visitors are countering with Matthew Boyd, who has been wildly up and down so far this year but for some reason has been awesome on the road. Boyd is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA on the road compared to 0-5 with an 8.46 mark at home. Opponents are batting .184 against him when he is the visiting pitcher; they are registering at .301 when he is pitching in front of the Detroit crowd. Boyd has gone 5 consecutive starts overall without allowing a run in the opening frame and 4 in a row on the road without doing so.
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