MLB Saturday same game parlay (+1045): Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres

Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) first bumps a young fan during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
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Ricky Dimon

MLB· 3 weeks ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

The San Diego Padres will end the regular season next week with what should have been highly anticipated and crucial National League West showdowns with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants. In all likelihood the Padres will be eliminated from playoff contention before those series even begin. In fact, they could be eliminated as early as today. That will be the case if a St. Louis win in the afternoon is followed by a San Diego loss to the Atlanta Braves. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Braves-Padres, and be sure to also check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.

Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+128)

Under 8.5 (-106)

Huascar Ynoa to record 6+ strikeouts (+185)

Parlay odds: +1045

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Huascar Ynoa striking out San Diego batters left and right would obviously go well with both an Atlanta win and an under play. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs one by one.

Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+128)

The Braves have won 5 of their last 6 games to maintain a slim lead (1.5 games) over Philadelphia in the NL East. Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. Across 81.1 innings in 2021, Ynoa is posting a solid 3.43 ERA, 4.17 xERA, and a 3.56 FIP. Since returning from the injured list in mid-August, Ynoa’s WHIP is an excellent 1.06. Expect the right-hander to deliver a strong outing against a San Diego lineup that ranks 20th in OPS and 25th in ISO over the last 14 days. The Padres are 3-7 in their last 10, virtually putting them out of their misery. They have little to no motivation, not can they have any confidence with Vince Velasquez on the mound (6.23 ERA this year). The Braves have the better starting pitcher, the better offense, and the better bullpen in this contest—oh yeah, and the better intangibles. They are superior in every category imaginable.


Under 8.5 (-106)

Velasquez has been awful this season and he has been especially bad in recent weeks, so you know the Braves are going to score some. Of course, to get over an 8.5 number it’s probably going to take both teams contributing—and the Padres may not score any. Yesterday’s tilt between these teams totaled just 4 runs, all of which came courtesy of Atlanta. Max Fried was dominant, throwing a complete-game shutout in which he allowed only 3 San Diego hitters to reach base. Atlanta’s offense continued to be mediocre with 4 runs on 7 hits, only two of which went for extra bases. Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly confines in the league, so another relatively low-scoring affair can be expected.

Huascar Ynoa to record 6+ strikeouts (+185)

Ynoa has not yet worked more than 5.2 inning in any September start. Nonetheless, he has recorded at least 7 strikeouts on two occasions. He also mowed down 9 Yankees batters in 6.0 innings on Aug. 23. In his 81.1 innings this season, the 23-year-old has produced 88 Ks. If he can work even 5.0 innings on Saturday, there is no reason why Ynoa can’t add to the reeling Padres’ woes and stike out at least 6 guys.

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