Ricky Dimon
MLB
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Another big weekend in Major League Baseball is wrapping up with a full 15-game slate on Sunday. Prior to the Sunday Night Game of the Week on ESPN between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, the afternoon schedule includes the New York Yankees vs the Chicago White Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays vs the Seattle Mariners. All three of those contests are getting the same game parlay treatment they deserve. Let’s take a look at the best such option for Toronto-Seattle, and be sure to also check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-112)
Steven Matz Under 6.5 strikeouts (-182)
Bo Bichette to hit a home run (+370)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Bo Bichette going deep would obviously work well with a Toronto win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with taking the under on Steven Matz’s strikeout quota. But even if Matz isn’t mowing down Mariners batters left and right, there is no reason why the Blue Jays can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-112)
Matz will be opposed by Seattle’s Logan Gilbert on Sunday afternoon. Advantage: Matz. The left-hander owns a 4.28 ERA, 4.06 xERA, and a 3.81 FIP through 20 turns in the rotation this season. Over his last 5 starts he has posted a 2.92 ERA and a 2.90 FIP, having allowed 2 earned runs or less on 4 occasions. Matz should have a productive outing against a Mariners offense that ranks 21st in both OPS and ISO over the last 14 days and 27th in OPS against left-handed pitching in 2021. Gilbert has a 5.11 ERA in his last 5 trips to the mound. Although Toronto may not be on fire at the plate right now, this is still a lineup that cannot be taken lightly.
Steven Matz Under 6.5 strikeouts (-182)
While Matz should be able to turn in a strong start, it may not be heavy in the strikeout department. Dating back to the start of July (a span of 6 starts), the 30-year-old has compiled only 26 strikeouts in 28.2 innings of work. That isn’t a terrible rate, but it wouldn’t be good enough to reach the 7-strikeout mark in this one. After all, Matz has not logged more than 6.0 innings in any start since May 25. He has not thrown more than 100 pitches since June 12. It should also be noted that Seattle struck out just five times on Saturday.
Bo Bichette to hit a home run (+370)
Bichette has not homered since August 5, but that is part of the reason why you can get him at enticing +370 odds. The 23-year-old shortstop has 20 blasts for the season, which is certainly a respectable number. Even though Bichette is right-handed, a matchup with the right-handed Gilbert is not a bad one. Bichette’s home-run rate vs RHPs (16 in 344 at-bats) is better than it is vs LHPs (4 in 109 at-bats) so far in 2021. Gilbert has served up 3 long-balls in his last 3 starts.
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