Mark Lammey
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After a light Monday slate, we’re back in full swing today. We’ve even got a doubleheader on the board, giving us 16 total games. That gives us plenty to break down and find the best plays for the day. However, that doesn’t mean you have to sweat out an entire game to boost your bankroll. Instead, we can make profit in just 6 outs, or about 15 minutes. Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for today.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Game 1: YRFI (-105)
We’re not going to waste any time getting things started. Since this is all about early plays, it’s only fitting that we target the first game of the day. The Cardinals and Cubs have a doubleheader today, so be sure you’re making this play on the correct game. Even without one last night, these teams are still some of the highest-scoring in that 1st inning.
The Cardinals have scored the 2nd-most runs in the 1st inning and the Cubs have scored the 3rd-most at home. Not only is this series at Wrigley Field, but afternoon games have proven to be profitable in terms of early runs. Two of the Cubs’ 3 afternoon games at home over the weekend had runs scored in the 1st inning, with both teams contributing. One of those was a home run by Ian Happ, the 100th of his career. That’s perfect for this situation, as he has a .852 slugging percentage against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright.
Wainwright being on the mound may cause hesitation with this play, but it shouldn’t. The last time he faced the Cubs in Chicago, he allowed a 1st-inning run. He hasn’t pitched on the road in any of his last 4 starts either. The last time he transitioned to a road game, he allowed a 1st-inning run to the lowly Reds. Even if that trend doesn’t continue, it’s the Cards’ top-of-the-order that is matchup-proof. Paul Goldschmidt became the 2nd player with at least 30 doubles and 30 home runs over the weekend, and becomes a greater favorite to win the NL MVP with each passing game. That’s all without mentioning that they’ll be hitting Cubs prospect Javier Assad in his first career start.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics: NRFI (-130)
It’s time to head out west, so we’re going to have to wait until later in the evening for our second play. We’re also shifting gears in the sense that there should not be a run in the 1st inning between the Marlins and A’s. First and foremost, these are 2 of the worst offenses in the league. Oakland has been the 2nd-lowest scoring team for quite some time, and Miami has been the worst since the all-star break. They’ve now scored 4 or fewer runs in 23 straight games, and just 2 games are preventing that from being 3 or less.
The Marlins are also the absolute worst lineup against lefties this season. That’s why we’re trusting the Athletics’ rookie starter Zach Logue. Outside of his major league debut, the lefty hasn’t allowed a single run in the 1st inning at home. That includes starts against the American League-best Astros and strong top-of-the-order with the Twins. The home starts are a key part of this play as well. Oakland Coliseum ranks next-to-last for home runs and dead last for overall runs.
They may call it home, but it hasn’t helped the A’s this season either. That should continue against the other starter in this matchup, Marlins Pablo Lopez. Miami’s lack of lineup depth stems from the fact that they put the majority of their stock in their pitching staff. He may not be ace Sandy Alcantara, but he can prevent the poor A’s lineup from scoring in the 1st inning. Both of these teams are within the bottom 10 for early runs, so expect that trend to continue.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics
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