MLB Wednesday NRFI/YRFI best bets today 7/6: Bombs away for the Brew crew

Milwaukee Brewers hitter Rowdy Tellez
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Mark Lammey

MLB · 1 month ago

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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind.

With a 14-game slate on Wednesday, nearly every team is in action. That provides plenty of opportunities for profit, as well as all types of different markets to do so. If you’re more on the impatient side, there’s always the specific prop of whether a run will be scored in the 1st inning or not. There’s more involved in finding the best ones than it may seem, but that’s what we’re here for.

Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games. Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite YRFI bets for today.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox YRFI (-110)

There are some well-known pitchers on the mound to start this game, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be hit. The White Sox are starting Lance Lynn, who missed the majority of the season. He didn’t get his first start until mid-June, and he’s clearly not found his midseason form just yet. Lynn began his 2022 campaign by allowing 14 runs across his first 3 starts. The first 2 of those also saw runs in the 1st inning. The most concerning of those was the one against the Tigers, the lowest-scoring team in baseball. While they scored 2 runs on Lynn, his lineup scored 2 as well. With a leadoff man like Tim Anderson back healthy, and a powerful Luis Robert batting 3rd, they always pose a threat.

Chicago’s lineup will be trying to repeat that performance against Minnesota’s Joe Ryan. While he’s been solid, he also missed time this season. There’s been at least a run scored in each of his last 3 starts as well. Not only has he allowed them, but his team has also produced for him as well. That’s what has the Twins as the 2nd-highest scoring team in the 1st inning this season. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise, as their lineup is led off by Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa. Arraez is battling for the league lead in hits, Buxton is still in the AL MVP race, and Correa has been in that same race throughout his young career. Given that both teams are hitting in a ballpark that ranks 3rd for home runs, expect some early action in this one.     

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers YRFI (+100)

After breaking down the White Sox, it’s time to transition over to the other Chicago team, the Cubs. They won’t be across town in Wrigley Field, but will be in another hitter-friendly ballpark in Milwaukee’s American Family Field. It ranks 2nd for home runs and 9th for overall runs. This play may seem surprising given the Brewers are starting Corbin Burnes for this game. However, this is much more of a play for Milwaukee to produce rather than the Cubs. The top of their lineup is absolutely stacked and will be facing Adrian Sampson. The Cubs pitcher has just 4 appearances this season spread across 2 months, and only 2 were starts. 

Sampson allowed 2 runs in the 1st inning to the Cardinals in his first start, followed by another to the Red Sox. Boston has actually been in the bottom half of the league for 1st-inning runs, while the Brewers are the 6th-best team in that category at home. It doesn’t take long to see why given their top 3 hitters. Christian Yelich is a former MVP, Willy Adames has 45 RBI despite playing just 60 games, and Rowdy Tellez just hit a homer in the 1st inning last night. That’s not to completely take away from the Cubs’ success early in games. It may be difficult to prove against Burnes, but they are actually the number 1 team in terms of runs scored in the 1st inning. Whether they defy the odds or another Brewers home run, this game should have a run scored in the first frame. 

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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