Filip Tomic
NBA
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We’re back with yet another Mega Parlay in the NBA Playoffs!
The parlay is priced just north of 12/1, which is solid value for only three games. Among the three teams picked, we expect the Phoenix Suns to make adjustments and surprise the Lakers on their own court tonight.
Let’s dive in, but before we do don’t forget to check out our picks for the side and total on every Sunday NBA game.
Atlanta Hawks -4.5 Spread (-115)
Phoenix Suns ML (+198)
Brooklyn Nets -10.5 Spread (+134)
Parlay odds: +1204
Atlanta Hawks -4.5 Spread (-115)
The Hawks won and covered in Game 3 and the line for Game 4 has held at -4.5. Usually, we get a little bit of movement in favour of whichever team won the last game but that hasn’t happened. Through three games the winning team has covered three times. I am now worried about New York because of the hard time that Randle has had. It looked like he was breaking out of it in Game 2 but then the last game was even worse, so I think it is part schematic and part mental. With the Hawks only needing to win by a couple of possessions, that is the way I am leaning here. It just doesn’t look like New York is making the right adjustments.
Be sure to check out our full game preview.
Phoenix Suns ML (+198)
The Suns aren’t the second seed by accident, they’ve been fairly consistent all season long. They have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as underdogs and are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss. Chris Paul’s injury has limited them in the first three games, but with two days of rest in between games his shoulder should feel much better, expect him to be more productive in Game 4 tonight. Anthony Davis has a knee injury which could limit his production, he has already had one bad game in this series and without him the Lakers just aren’t the same team. Joining Davis on the injury list is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who also has a knee injury, both guys should play tonight but they are not at 100 percent. LA has also had problems after big wins during the regular season, they are just 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points. Phoenix cannot afford to go down 3-1, so this is their game of the season so far, let’s see how they respond.
Don’t forget to check out our Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Lakers full game preview.
Brooklyn Nets -10.5 Spread (+134)
The Celtics won Game 3, which has helped us get better value on the Nets here in Game 4. Let’s not overreact to one game. Brooklyn dominated the first two games of this series, and they aren’t going to let Boston even things at 2-2. This spread went down a couple of points just because the Celtics won one game, when I don’t think too much changed. Even with Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Evan Fournier combining to shoot 14-of-26 from three, the Celtics still only won by six points.
With a little shooting regression from Boston, this should turn into a Nets blowout. Brooklyn won the first two games of this series by at least 11, so getting plus-money here sounds great to me. It’s not like the Nets’ offense struggled in Game 3; they still put up 119 points but simply ran into the Celtics on a hot shooting night.
Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics full game preview available here.
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