We witnessed a thrilling start to the NBA play-in tournament yesterday as the Hawks pulled off a shocker to be the Heat and the Lakers won a close one against Minnesota in overtime. But now the real deal starts as it’s the first winner-take-all day!
We’ll have picks on the side and total for each play-in game in our NBA predictions so don’t forget to check those out. Now jump straight into my parlay.
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Atlanta’s 11-point win over Miami last night will be an eye-opener for Chicago and Oklahoma City, giving them hope that anything is possible in the postseason. It hasn’t been the best of years for the Bulls so far, but that has mainly been due to injuries. They were able to get hot towards the end of the regular season, winning 4 of their last 6 overall and 8 of their last 10 on the road. Toronto won both the games at Scotiabank Arena, but Chicago still holds an edge with a 7-3 ATS/SU record in head-to-head meetings. DeMar DeRozan will be extra motivated to take out his former team, and he and Zach LaVine have really played well during this hot stretch. Toronto is an impressive 11-1 SU in its last 12 home games, but has lacked consistency for long stretches this season. The Raptors have also dealt with a lot of setbacks due to injuries. Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby both have knocks and the Bulls should have the advantage in the back court. Chicago can pull this one out and set up a date with Miami for the 8th seed.
This hasn’t exactly been the most productive of matchups points-wise, but with a modest projected total of just 213 points there should be enough firepower on both teams to surpass that number. Chicago capped off the season with 7 overs in their last 10 games, shooting over 50% from the field. Defending the 3-ball has plagued both teams this season. The Bulls rank 13th in percentage allowed from deep, but the Raptors are all the way down in 28th, allowing 37.4% of makes from downtown. Everyone shoots threes these days in the NBA, so if you haven’t mastered that part of your defense it will be hard to keep teams from scoring. These teams have combined to score 218.5 points per game in their last 10 meetings, and let’s also not forget if it’s a close game there is a chance we will go into OT which would also benefit those backing the over.
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To close out the parlay I have the New Orleans Pelicans winning a close game against the feisty OKC Thunder. The Pels opened as 5.5-point favorites at home, and winning by 6 points sounds like a lot considering they’ve beaten the Thunder by just 4, 3 and 3 points in their 3 wins over them during the regular season. This being an elimination game, I doubt either team will allow the other to pull away as each possession will count. OKC has been able to cover the spread 10 times in their last 14 meetings, and in 6 straight visits to Smoothie King Center. In fact, the Thunder have been the most consistent team against the spread this season with a 47-34-1 ATS record overall and 23-17-1 ATS on the road. Injuries have taken a toll on both teams this season, but with Ingram and McCollum at their disposal the Pelicans should have enough to pull this one out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging over 33 points per game in 4 meetings this season, so stopping him will be a priority. I’ll go with the Pelicans, who are 9-3 SU in their last 12 and 5-1 SU in their last 6 at home.
Check out our Thunder vs Pelicans Same Game Parlay (+794 odds!)
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