New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Today’s Aaron Judge Home Run Odds, Picks and Predictions

New York Yankees hitter Aaron Judge
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Mark Lammey


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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind. For Mark Lammey media enquiries, please email
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As the MLB season winds down, nothing has been more captivating than Aaron Judge’s chase for the AL home run record. The Yankees slugger hit his 61st homer on Wednesday and he has 7 games left to break the record. He’s currently tied with former-Yankee Roger Maris and will be taking on the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Time is of the essence so let’s dive into the matchup. Along with this Aaron Judge breakdown, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.

Aaron Judge vs. Jordan Lyles: Will Aaron Judge hit a home run?

Judge and the Yankees are coming into their AL East series against the Orioles after a day off on Thursday. Not only are they rested, they have a great matchup against O’s starter Jordan Lyles. The former Ranger is as inconsistent as they come. He was just pulled after 2.0 innings in his most recent start, which was a 22-run game. He’s also allowed at least 1 home run in each of his last 4 starts. He began the month with a 17-4 loss to the Red Sox, and was the starter for a 25-run game against Boston last month as well.

It’s safe to say plenty of runs are scored when Lyles takes the mound. The news only gets better for Yankees fans. Judge is hitting .357 against Lyles, including 2 home runs. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to keep an eye out for any odds boosts offered by sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings. They’ve been doing so ever since he hit his 60th, and will likely continue to do so until the record is broken. There have also been bettors that have been very profitable with his walk/HBP prop.

Be sure to check out our Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees predictions

How to bet on Aaron Judge’s props tonight

There’s no doubt that Judge has a great matchup tonight. He’s even hitting at home in Yankee Stadium which is great for the long ball. However, the issue recently has been pitchers pitching around him. That’s been leading to more walks for Judge rather than good pitches to hit. Pitchers have been able to do so as the hitters behind Judge haven’t been making them pay for it. Therefore, betting on him to either walk or get hit by a pitch is a prop many have taken advantage of.

Here’s a great way to attack tonight’s matchup. Firstly, if there are any home run boosts available, they are 100% worth a pre-game play given this great matchup. If you’re able to live bet this game, it would be worth watching how Lyles is throwing to him in terms of good pitches to hit. If it becomes clear they are just going to walk him, those props become valuable. Lastly, Oswaldo Cabrera and Josh Donaldson stepped up and hit well the last time the Yankees took the field. Those are the 2 hitters behind Judge, which makes an odds boost on his home run prop that much more valuable.

If you enjoy other specific plays, check out our YFRI/NRFI best bets for today!

Current Aaron Judge Home Run Odds with top sportsbooks

FanDuel: +200
DraftKings: +250
Caesars: +215
PointsBet: +255 ODDS BOOST (was +210)

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