Welcome to daily fantasy football, Pickswise Nation. For those who haven’t yet dipped their toes into the DFS pool, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Howard Bender and I have been working in the fantasy sports industry for more than 20 years. I am the head of fantasy sports content for Fantasy Alarm and DFS Alarm as well as a bi-weekly columnist for the New York Post. We’ve enjoyed tremendous success over the years, but this NFL season has been one of our best as our Playbook and Showdown write-ups have already brought in a $1,000,000 winner on FanDuel, as well as several others who have enjoyed six-figure wins. We promote the process and teach you to be a better DFS player and that has certainly been the case this year. Welcome to the #FAmily…
We’ve got quite the matchup for Monday Night Football and one that should make setting DFS showdown lineups very interesting. The New Orleans Saints are always strong when playing at home in the Superdome, but COVID has really ravaged their team on both sides of the ball. They’ll start rookie quarterback Ian Book under center and hope he can lead the team downfield behind a patched-up offensive line, while the defense will be without key players like Demario Davis and Kwon Alexander who are almost irreplaceable given their contributions. Meanwhile, the visiting Miami Dolphins have a few COVID issues of their own, but, for the most part, are working themselves back to full health. Tua Tagovailoa has all his receiving weapons available and the backfield gets a boost after Myles Gaskin returned to a full week’s worth of practices.
MVP/Captain
Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
After missing Week 15, Waddle was activated from the COVID list and got in a full week of practice, so he should slide right back into his usual role as Tua’s favorite receiver. He plays the majority of his snaps in the slot which is a huge weakness for a Saints defense already depleted by COVID, so look for him to see a lot of targets in this one.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
With Ian Book under center, the expectation is the Saints will lean heavily on Kamara who, at this time last year enjoyed his six-touchdown game. Not saying that’s going to happen given some of the offensive line COVID issues and the strength of the Dolphins defense, but the lean will certainly be here for rushing and passing check-downs.
Mike Gesicki, TE MIA
The Saints are usually a top-five team in DVOA with regard to covering the tight end, but without Demario Davis and Kwon Alexander, this is going to be a great spot for Gesicki to shine bright. He’s a major part of this passing attack and should stay heavily involved.
Other Plays
Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
The numbers aren’t ever great, but they’ve been serviceable enough to add him to a showdown slate and hope for a 240-yard, two-touchdown game. That is certainly attainable tonight with all the missing defenders for the Saints.
Myles Gaskin, RB MIA
He’s had a full week of practice now following his time on the COVID list and should go back to his lead-back status in this offense. Brian Flores routinely goes back to him when he’s healthy and he even played 37-percent of the snaps last week. Things should get back to normal for Miami this week. And if you’re fearing the dreaded Saints run defense, just look at how that linebacker corps has been decimated by COVID. If the Dolphins O-line handles the Saints defensive line, there’s not much behind them to stop Gaskin & Co.
Mark Ingram, RB NO
The Saints will likely go with a very run-heavy scheme and won’t want to completely overwork Kamara. Ingram should get his usual complementary touches and should also be an option down near the goal line
Ian Book, QB NO
He had some shining moments against some bad teams in college, but when it came to facing a top-ranked team, it was rough. He can scramble with the best of them, and maybe that helps his overall value, but he’s definitely more of a contrarian play tonight.
MIA D/ST
You can’t talk about Ian Book starting for the Saints and not think using the Dolphins defense is going to be a chalky move for many. And rightfully so. Miami ranks ninth with 21 takeaways and seventh in sacks with 37 this season. If you can get a defensive touchdown from them, your night is made.
DeVante Parker, WR MIA
He ranks second on the targets list for Miami wideouts and should see some decent work in this one as the Dolphins like a balanced offensive attack. The Saints are going to have coverage issues with players on the COVID list, so using Parker should give your team a boost.
Marquez Callaway, WR NO
He leads all Saints wide receivers in snaps and is coming off a huge nine-target game. The match-up is a little tough given the strength of the Miami corners, but if the Saints fall behind while the Dolphins stack the box, things should open up for him downfield later on.
Tre’Quan Smith, WR NO
If he’s healthy and playing, this is actually a good spot for Smith so keep tabs on the inactives heading into the game. Before the last two weeks, he was leading the receiving corps in targets and he spends most of his time working out of the slot, an Achilles heel of the Miami secondary as they rank 31st in DVOA against the slot.
Duke Johnson, RB MIA
He is expected to land in more of a complementary role now that Gaskin is back and ready to go. Still, the Saints rank 15th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and with their depleted linebacker corps, we could get Johnson running out in space a little more.
Nick Vannett, TE NO
Young, inexperienced quarterbacks tend to lean on their pass-catchers across the middle and that routinely includes the tight end. With both Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson out with COVID, Vannett is the last man standing here.
Dart Throws
Isaiah Ford, WR MIA
The Dolphins could enjoy some downfield passing work if their running backs don’t capitalize on some of the ways COVID has softened the Saints defense and Ford always seems to fly under the radar but come up with some nice days here and there. Might be a little better than just your average dart throw as he tends to see more than just one target when he’s involved. Sorry, Mack Hollins.
Ty Montgomery, RB NO
The running back/wide receiver hybrid always manages to finagle his way into the game-plan and if Sean Payton isn’t convinced that Ian Book can lead the way, you’ll see more running and plenty of extra dump-offs here.
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