Clevta’s Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots best bet: Bears +8 (-110)
Bears +8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
The Patriots have been on a roll lately, winning their last two games by a combined 52 points. That has clearly effected the market perception of New England, as this line is actually higher than what the Vikings were laying against Chicago just two weeks ago. Minnesota is a higher power rated team than New England in my eyes and I think 7 is the correct number here. It’s always scary backing a young QB like Justin Fields against a Bill Belichick defense but his defenses have historically struggled to stop running QBs. It’s not much different than what his disciple, Nick Saban’s achilles heal has been as well at Alabama. We just saw a few weeks ago, Lamar Jackson tear up this New England defense with 107 rush yards and 37 points. This defense has historically also struggled against guys like Russell Wilson as well. Some of it is that the Patriots defenders are very smart and cerebrial and know exactly what spots to be in but when plays get broken and there is a scramble situation they are not overly athletic or fast and have a difficult time defending those runs. Not that I think Fields will post huge scoring numbers but I think his mobility and ability to run for first downs will help extend some drives.
Get our best touchdown scorer bets for Bears vs Patriots, including one at +360 odds!
We are likely to see the return of QB Mac Jones and he won’t be fully mobile with that bad ankle. The Bears can get some pressure, 8th in pressure rate, and do so without ever blitzing (32nd in blitz rate). They will force Jones to dump it short against this Matt Eberflus zone. Jones has been a below average starter the last two seasons against zone defenses. He’s a top 10 QB against man to man defenses.
In a game that is going to be very slow (NE 26th in pace and Chicago 15th) with two teams that run the ball at top 10 highest rates, that should cater more for the underdog to cover. There are less plays and time for the favorite to create such a big margin or extend that margin. The Patriots defense isn’t great and can be run on. They are 29th in run efficiency allowed and have been burned by explosive pass plays as well, allowing the 4th highest rate in the NFL. Chicago won’t be able to consistently move the ball through the air but Fields is excellent in downfield passing and can hit on a few chunk plays.
The Bears have faced and covered against some really good teams this year, beating the Niners while covering a big number against the Vikings as well. I think New England grinds this game out and wins but over a touchdown spread is too much.
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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