Andrew Wilsher
Show Bio
Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season gets started with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals. It’s the battle of the top draft picks, as the number one overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence, meets the top pick of the 2020 Draft, Joe Burrow. The Jaguars are still looking for their first win of the season while the Bengals can improve to 3-1 if they win this matchup.
This may not be the most glamorous primetime matchup, but it should be interesting — and one way of adding to the excitement is by betting a same game parlay. We have 3 legs that pay out at +1816 odds!
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-110)
Joe Mixon under 84.5 rushing yards (-114)
Marvin Jones to score a touchdown (+195)
Parlay odds: +1816
The benefit of same game parlays is that you can combine plays that on paper appear slightly contradictory to boost the odds, when there isn’t actually too much crossover. That is the plan here, as combining a comfortable Bengals win with the under on Mixon rushing yards and Jones scoring a touchdown arguably go against each other, when I think all three have a very good chance of happening. Let’s break down each of the three legs.
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-110)
Cincinnati has got off to a solid start with great wins over the Vikings and Steelers, but the highlight so far has been the rapport of reunited LSU alumni Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Rookie receiver Chase has already hooked up with his quarterback to score 4 touchdowns in 3 games, and I expect them both to have another big game under the primetime lights in this game. The Bengals offense has been hot, averaging 8.5 passing yards per attempt (tied for 8th-best in the NFL), and they now get to take on a Jaguars defense that has allowed the 3rd-most yards per attempt.
While the Cincinnati offense has been hot, the same cannot be said for Jacksonville. Rookie quarterback Lawrence has had a nightmare so far, throwing 7 interceptions in his first 3 games including a pick-6 last week against the Cardinals. Ultimately I’m not sure how the Jags’ offense keeps up with the Bengals, and the hosts should be able to win this one by more than a touchdown.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon under 84.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Bengals’ passing game has been great but so has their run offense, with Joe Mixon boasting the second-most rushing yards in the league. He has dominated both the Vikings and Steelers, getting tons of carries, and has gone over this number in 2 of his 3 games. However, those facts have led to this line being bumped up to a huge figure and there’s value in going against it. Mixon has been getting lots of carries but I’m expecting Cincinnati to look to exploit Jacksonville through the air.
I noted how poorly the Jags have been against the pass, but they’ve quietly been hot against the run. They’ve faced the 3rd-most rush attempts in the league, but have allowed only the 16th-most rushing yards, proving they at least have that going for them on defense. They’ve also allowed only one player to go over this line, and that was Houston’s Mark Ingram, who crept over it with 85 yards. I expect Mixon to have some success, but overall this line is too high and taking the under works nicely with our same game parlay.
Marvin Jones to score a touchdown (+195)
The last leg of this same game parlay is a value pick on Jaguars receiver Marvin Jones to score a touchdown. The ex-Lion has already built some good chemistry with Lawrence, having at least 5 receptions in each of their 3 games and finding the endzone in 2 of them. The drawback is that the Bengals have been solid against the pass up to this point, but they have been prone to the occasional slip-up and I expect the Jaguars to score at least a couple of touchdowns on Thursday night. With Jones available at nearly 2/1, he’s a great addition to this same game parlay and jacks the odds up to over 18/1.
Make sure you read PropBetGuy’s best player prop bet for TNF between the Jaguars and Bengals!
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
