NFL Week 3 same game parlay (+700 odds): Washington Football Team vs Buffalo Bills

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Phil Agius

NFL· 4 weeks ago

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I've been writing about the NFL and a host of other sports for the UK's top daily betting paper the Racing Post for more than 20 years. An incurable Browns fan (1-31 survivor), I also specialise in all kinds of motorsport betting including F1, MotoGP, IndyCar and NASCAR.

The Buffalo Bills got things back on track with a 35-0 win over Miami last week after losing at home to Pittsburgh in their opener, while the Washington Football Team arrives with a matching 1-1 record after losing to the Chargers before beating the Giants.

The sportsbooks have little doubt that it will be the Bills who improve their record to 2-1 and they may well be right there, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest we should at least see a close contest in this cross-conference clash–which is one of the games that was added to the schedule with the move to a 17-game season.

Washington paid a penalty there, being matched with a strong AFC East division winner after taking the NFC East title nobody wanted to win last season. But as they showed against Tampa Bay in the playoffs, they have plenty of fight in them under head coach Ron Rivera and they’re not likely to lie down easily.

Let’s take a look at the parlay we’ve prepared, which pays exactly 7/1 with DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Washington +7.5

Josh Allen to score a touchdown

Over 39.5 Logan Thomas receiving yards

Parlay odds: +700

Washington +7.5

There was some Washington +8.5 available when our main preview for this game was published earlier this week. Clearly others agreed that it was handing the Football Team just a little too much as +7.5 is the best offer as of Friday, but taking a line of more than a converted touchdown looks worthwhile.

The Football Team has played 2 close games so far, losing by 4 to the Chargers in their opener–during which quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was injured and beating the Giants by 1 in Taylor Heinicke’s first start. That was on Thursday Night Football, so the WFT’s new QB will not have had a large amount of starter reps in practice beforehand. But the opposite applies now. Washington has had its mini-bye and is well rested with extra preparation time, and this time they knew Heinicke was the starter from the outset.

Buffalo is clearly a better team than the Giants and was better than the Chargers last season at least. But the Washington defense–with Chase Young and Montez Sweat leading the pass-rush–is also capable of causing problems for the Bills. The home team is justifiably favored, but a close game can’t be ruled out.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Washington vs Buffalo

Josh Allen to score a touchdown

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season, which means one should be coming soon because he has posted at least 8 in each of his three seasons in the league. It’s not as if he’s suddenly turned into a pocket passer; he has 14 rushing attempts for 79 yards already at an average of 5.6, which is on pace with anything he has produced before. 

The Football Team gave up a 6-yard rushing TD to Giants QB Daniel Jones last week (the first score of the game). It would be no surprise to see Allen eluding the WFT defense in the redzone and scampering in for his first score of the year. Remember that a receiving score would also count; Allen scored a TD on his only reception of 2020!

Over 39.5 Logan Thomas receiving yards

Whoever is at quarterback for Washington, they will be targeting Logan Thomas. A dependable tight end is a tremendous comfort to an inexperienced QB and Heinicke knows that he can look for Thomas when things are going well, or if they are going badly. Thomas opened up the 2021 season with just 30 yards on 3 targets against the Chargers, but he caught 5 of the 7 balls Heinicke threw his way for 45 yards against the Giants. Topping 40 again looks within his capabilities against the Bills.

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