Andrew Ortenberg
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The first few weeks of the 2021 NFL season have been epic. Now we’ll be treated to another full slate this coming Sunday for Week 5. We have an interesting AFC vs NFC clash here as the Miami Dolphins visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady squeaked out a close win over his former coach Bill Belichick last week, and he’ll have to topple another one of his former coaches on Sunday in Brian Flores. What better way to make this reunion game even more exciting than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total for every Week 5 matchup, of course, which you can view in our NFL picks tab.
But let’s dive into this same game parlay:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 (-110)
Mike Evans to score 2+ touchdowns (+850)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1191
We have a simple 2-leg same game parlay which pays out just shy of 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 (-110)
To start this same game parlay, I’m simply taking the Buccaneers on the spread. For a few reasons, Brady should have a much easier time with this former coach. For starters, he won’t be playing in the pouring rain like he was last week. A lot has been made about the injuries in Tampa’s secondary, but those won’t really matter against a team that can’t pass protect or throw the ball in general. Miami has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and I’m not worried about Jacoby Brissett beating the Bucs’ defense vertically.
He won’t have much time to throw, as the Bucs’ ferocious defensive front should eat the Dolphins’ pitiful O-line alive. Tampa is also getting some reinforcements on defense, as star pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul and starting cornerback Jamel Dean will both return for this one. Brady should have the chance to run up the score, because I don’t see the Dolphins scoring much at all.
Mike Evans to score 2+ touchdowns (+850)
This play correlates heavily with the first leg of our same game parlay. If Evans is scoring multiple touchdowns, the Bucs are almost certainly winning big. But I also think this prop has standalone value at +850. A bet that’s priced at +850 only needs to cash 10.5% of the time to be profitable, or about 1/10 tries. Evans already has a multi-touchdown game this season, back in Week 2 against the Falcons.
He had three multi-touchdown games last year in only 16 chances. Rob Gronkowski is also out for this one, which will free up some redzone targets for Evans that might normally go Gronk’s way. Obviously as a bigger receiver, Evans is a prime candidate for looks in the red area. Evans has also received double-digit targets in each of the past 2 weeks, and his volume has been pretty consistent. If there was ever a game for him to score multiple touchdowns, it’s this one.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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