The Northwestern Wildcats have been absolutely all over the place in recent seasons. After winning 19 total games between 2017 and 2018, they compiled a 3-9 record in 2020. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team bounced back with a 7-2 mark in the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign only to go 3-9 again last year. In fact, over the past four seasons Northwestern has either been first or last in the Big Ten West — no in between.
At which extreme will Northwestern find itself in 2022, or will it finally be in the middle ground? With the college football season just a week away, it’s time to break down the Wildcats.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Northwestern is +100000 to win the College Football Playoff. That is 1000/1 if you don’t want to have to count as many zeroes. Alabama is +175 favorite, followed by Ohio State (+300) and Georgia (+400).
The Wildcats are +40000 to triumph in the Big Ten. They are dead last on the list, well behind the likes of Ohio State (-215) and Michigan (+600).
Northwestern is +8000 to book a spot in the Big Ten Championship by winning the West Division. Wisconsin is a +190 favorite.
Northwestern started off bad in 2021 and only got worse. Not even a friendly schedule at the start of the season could help the Wildcats get above the .500 mark at any point. They managed to beat non-conference opponents Indiana State and Ohio in addition to lowly Big Ten foe Rutgers, but those results were preceded by losses to Michigan State, Duke and Nebraska, respectively. Following their 3-3 start, the ‘Cats lost their final six games – resulting in a 3-9 overall record and a 1-8 effort in the conference. That’s what happens when you are horrendous on both sides of the ball, which was the case for Northwestern. It finished last in the Big Ten in points scored and third-to-last in points allowed. Basically the only bright spots were running back Evan Hull (1,009 yards, 7 touchdowns), linebacker Chris Bergin (132 tackles) and defensive end Adetomiwa Adebawore (4.5 sacks).
“If you’re not first, you’re last.” That is the lesson viewers learned from Talladega Nights and it has literally proven to be true for Northwestern over the past four years. Will the trend continue in 2022? Well, you can pretty much guarantee that the Wildcats won’t finish first in the Big Ten West like they did in 2018 and 2020. Will they finish last? The odds suggest they will, and who am I to argue? To say that Fitzgerald won’t have a lot to work with this season from a player personnel standpoint would be a gross understatement. Quarterbacks Andrew Marty and Hunter Johnson are gone, leaving the spoils to either (or both) Ryan Hilinski and Brendan Sullivan. Neither inspires much confidence.
Bergin is gone from the defense, so even though Adebawore is back it will be a mostly unproven unit. The ‘Cats allowed a ridiculous 6.15 yards per play in 2021 and it’s hard to see them improving much a year later. Their best defense may be trying to keep opponents off the field by running the football – and the clock. Hull and fellow RB Andrew Clair (349 yards) return, so those two guys running behind an experienced offensive line will be the strength of the squad.
The Wildcats have only one Big Ten home game against an opponent not currently ranked in the top 25 – Illinois in the season finale on Nov. 26. That alone is a recipe for disaster. Miami (OH) is expected to be one of the best teams in the MAC, so even the Wildcats’ non-conference slate isn’t the easiest. Even if Northwestern starts 2-1 with wins over Duke and Southern Illinois, there still wouldn’t be any reason for optimism. The schedule thereafter is rough stuff. At close to even money, Under 4 is a good value play. At worst this should be a push, and in all likelihood it will cash. This Northwestern team just isn’t good.
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