MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Monday, September 21, inc. Nationals vs Tigers
With just 3 games on Monday's slate of MLB action there are limited options to choose from when searching out betting value. Luckily, I believe I found 3 spots worth taking a look at including a player prop on a season debut. Let's dive in and discuss!
MLB Best Bet: Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers under 8.5 (-120)
Odds available at Bet365 sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to under 8 (-105) or better)
River Ryan is scheduled to make his debut as a member of the Tigers on Monday as Detroit takes on the Washington Nationals. Ryan was part of the prospect package Detroit received from the Dodgers in return for Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. The right-handed pitcher was a top 100 prospect on several ranking outlets at the time of the trade, and figures to play a large role in the Tigers pitching plans for 2027. He’s pitched just 41 minor league innings this season with 2 abbreviated outings since his return from a hamstring injury. He is only expected to work 2-3 innings before being piggybacked by Keider Montero.
Montero has a 3.58 ERA and 3.61 xERA in his 151 innings of work this season. He has pitched very well for Detroit as both a starter and reliever. Montero has limited walks at an excellent rate while also reducing hard contact allowed. The Tigers pitching staff should benefit from an advantageous matchup against an inconsistent Nationals lineup that is in poor current form against right-handed pitching.
DJ Herz is set to make his first MLB appearance since September 25 of the 2024 season. Hertz required Tommy John surgery on his elbow after posting a 4.16 ERA with 106 strikeouts in his first 88.2 career innings pitched. If he can replicate that production to close this season he may figure into what is currently a pretty open pitching staff for the 2027 Nationals roster. Herz has just 25.2 minor league innings under his belt with a 3.16 ERA this season. He did work up to 65 pitches in his last outing so could see 70-80 in this start if everything goes well. Detroit has been decent against lefties of late, but I still lean towards the under in Monday’s matchup.
MLB Best Bet: DJ Herz (WAS) over 3.5 strikeouts (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
Let’s stick with Herz in his return to the majors by backing his strikeout prop. His prop sits at just 3.5 with juice favoring the under at time of publishing. He made 19 starts as a rookie in the 2024 season, averaging 4.2 innings and 5.58 strikeouts per start made. Herz threw an average of 83.48 pitches per start in those outings. That type of workload isn’t out of his range in Monday’s start with 4.1 innings of work in each of his last 2 AAA starts. He recorded 4 and 5 strikeouts in those starts.
In his 19 MLB starts during the 2024 season Herz reached this strikeout total in 16 of those outings with 5 or more Ks recorded in 13 starts. He even recorded 13 strikeouts in a start against the Marlins, allowing 0 runs across 6 innings. While these performances were a while ago against players he won’t face Monday, my point is that he is more than capable of achieving this mark. Detroit has a hefty strikeout rate of over 24% against lefties in the last 30 days and I like his ladder potential in this matchup.
MLB Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles over 7.5 (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Trey Yesavage is set to return to the Blue Jays rotation Monday as Toronto travels to Baltimore to take on the Orioles. Yesavage has not pitched in an MLB game since August 4, tossing 2 innings before exiting with injury. The right-hander didn’t begin his season until late April. His month of May was very good before middling performances in June and July. Yesavage has strong underlying metrics but walks a bunch of guys and only had 1 minor league rehab outing. That outing resulted in just 2 outs with 34 pitches thrown, allowing 2 hits and a walk with 1 run crossing the plate. He is expected to work 3 innings or 50 pitches whichever comes first before handing the ball off to the Toronto bullpen.
Shane Baz is the scheduled starter for Baltimore Monday. Baz tossed 68 pitches across 4 innings of work in his last start. He allowed 3 earned runs and 9 total base runners before being hit by a line drive and leaving afterwards. Baz is someone I bet against in that outing in the prop market, and I am not fond of his matchup against the Blue Jays Monday. Toronto has been productive against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days and scored 5 runs off Baz in their only matchup so far this season. I favor the over on the posted game total in Monday’s game.
