Week 11 of the NFL season is approaching, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening NFL Week 11 betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith along with Twinspires Director of Retail Sports Zachary Lucas offer insights into the lines and early betting takeaways for this week’s games.
Buy Low: Chargers vs Chiefs
This line has moved almost a full touchdown since originating as a pick’em over the summer. The Chiefs won the first matchup 27-24 in Week 2 but failed to cover as a 4-point favorite. That was also the game Justin Herbert suffered his rib injury, which has taken a long time to heal. Since Herbert burst onto the scene 3 seasons ago he’s 4-1 ATS against the Chiefs.
Overall favorites of more than 3 points are just 31-56 ATS (35.6%) this season, a trend which continues to paint a picture of parity across the league. Considering the Chargers were 4-point underdogs on the road in this spot earlier this season, I have no problem taking even more points with them this week at home.
Zach’s market prediction: I see this line going towards the Chargers off 7 (especially if they upset SF tonight). Divisional matchup I usually lean towards the dog, especially at home. Herbert has had some success vs KC throwing for 3+ TDs 3/5 games they played.
Sell High: Giants vs Lions
Don’t look now but the Lions have won back-to-back games in the division. Jared Goff graded out as a top 5 QB in the efficiency rankings on Sunday on the road against the Bears and Amon-Ra St. Brown was a ray of sunshine with 119 receiving yards on 11 targets.
Meanwhile the Giants were fortunate to cover against the Texans despite Saquon Barkley going off for 152 rushing yards on an absurd 35 carries. That’s because Daniel Jones continued his delightfully mediocre season with limited weapons around him.
Besides the coaching staff, there’s just nothing truly special about this Giants team. The defense is painfully average and the offense seems to be getting by with more will than skill. That can work when you’re the feisty underdog, but this is the second week in a row the Giants are tasked with being a favorite. I like this Detroit team much better in the underdog role.
Zach’s market prediction: Giants continue to be overrated by many. Texans should be a team you’re blowing out and they showed their talent isn’t even capable of that. Lions are more than capable of winning this game outright. If this game ever touches 4 I would jump on Detroit.
Free Fall: Cowboys vs Vikings
What a wild Sunday for both of these teams. The Cowboys blew a 2-score lead on the road against Aaron Rodgers in overtime. Dak Prescott did not play well in the 2nd half and Green Bay’s offensive line held the Dallas defense to only 2 sacks, snapping a string of 4 straight games with at least 4 sacks.
The Vikings continued to defy logic by winning a miraculous game in Buffalo against arguably the best team in the NFL. It’s the 7th straight win for Minnesota all by a single score, something that will be difficult to sustain in the second half.
Despite all of that, the oddsmakers believe the Cowboys are still the better team, flipping them to a favorite last week after the line originated Vikings -1.5 over the summer. It’s early but my guess is Minnesota will be a very trendy underdog, and I’m fascinated to see how the market reacts throughout the week.
Zach’s market prediction: You’re getting an 8-1 Vikings team off a big upset win vs arguably the best team and they’re a small dog at home. This line stinks. If you like Minnesota now I’d get on it. I doubt you see plus money for much longer. I personally will be on Dallas and wait until later in the week to bet it.
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