Early Birds: Opening NFL Week 2 betting lines, odds, spreads and analysis from NFL expert Jared Smith

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) runs the ball in for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

The early bird gets the worm!

We’re back for our first full season of “Early Birds” after starting this project 4 weeks into last year. As a quick refresher, the goal of this column is to highlight possible overreactions in the market for NFL lines at the reopening stage.

So what’s a “reopening line” you ask? Well, every week the sportsbooks will offer lookahead lines for the following week, meaning you could have bet on Week 2 and beyond before the Week 1 games even took place. These lookahead lines are a crucial measuring stick for sportsbooks and sharp bettors as ratings adjust and evolve for each team throughout the season.

On game day, the entire lookahead market will close as action ensues, only to reopen again later that night or early Monday morning after the dust settles. The first and perhaps most important part of my process each week is comparing these “reopening lines” to the lookahead lines. Analyzing this market successfully can help provide a treasure trove of value by not only determining which way the market could move, but also when is the best time to buy.

It will be the goal of this column to track this movement on a weekly basis and offer an “early market indicator” based on that movement. For example, if the lookahead line for a game was Chiefs -3 with a total of 45, and the reopening line was Chiefs -3.5 with a total of 45.5, the early market indicator on that game would be Chiefs and over. I will also briefly analyze any early bets in either NFL or college football at the end.

NFL Week 2 lookahead lines and how they changed after Week 1

All odds via Superbook Sports

Week 2 Game

Lookahead Line

Lookahead Total

Reopening Line

Reopening Total

Early Market Indicator

Chargers at Chiefs

Chiefs -3

53.5

Chiefs -3.5

54

Chiefs/Over

Panthers at Giants

Pickem

42.5

Giants -2.5

42.5

Giants

Colts at Jaguars

Colts -4.5

45.5

Colts -4

45.5

Jaguars

Dolphins at Ravens

Ravens -4

46

Ravens -4

45.5

Under

Patriots at Steelers

Patriots -1.5

42.5

Pickem

41

Steelers/Under

Jets at Browns

Browns -5.5

42

Browns -6.5

42

Browns

Bucs at Saints

Bucs -3

47

Bucs -3

45.5

Under

Commanders at Lions

Pickem

44.5

Lions -1.5

46.5

Lions/Over

Falcons at Rams

Rams -13.5

48.5

Rams -10.5

48

Falcons/Under

Seahawks at 49ers

49ers -9.5

43.5

49ers -8.5

42

Seahawks/Under

Cardinals at Raiders

Raiders -3

51

Raiders -3.5

51.5

Raiders/Over

Bengals at Cowboys

Cowboys -2.5

50.5

Bengals -7

44.5

Bengals/Under

Texans at Broncos

Broncos -10.5

43.5

Broncos -10.5

44

Texans/Over

Bears at Packers

Packers -10

45.5

Packers -10

43

Under

Titans at Bills

Bills -7.5

51

Bills -9.5

49.5

Bills/Under

Vikings at Eagles

Eagles -2.5

48

Eagles -3

49

Eagles/Over

NFL Week 2 betting market moves and predictions

Panthers at Giants: Big move towards Big Blue after their upset win over Tennessee. If Carolina gets to 3, you’ll likely see some sharp buyback towards the Panthers at that key number.

Titans at Bills: This line also jumped 2 points after Buffalo’s impressive win over the Rams on Thursday night, coupled with the Titans’ outright loss as a home favorite. I don’t see that line moving back towards Tennessee, as it’s currently hovering right near that key teaser protection number of 9.

Commanders at Lions: This total will likely touch 47 and could push through after Carson Wentz’s strong performance and the Lions’ ineptitude on defense. It’s also gravitating towards a secondary key number, as almost 4% of games have landed on 47 over the last decade.

College football early bets: Targeting two favorites

Washington -2 over Michigan State

Rankings shmankings. Washington is an unranked team laying points, a classic play-on spot for me in prior seasons. The Huskies’ offense looks rejuvenated with HC Kalen DeBoer running an uptempo style with transfer QB Michael Penix. DeBoer was Penix’s offensive coordinator at Indiana, so both have plenty of experience facing off against Big 10 defenses. Washington enters the game 4th in the country in EPA/play and has a 58% success rate in two games, albeit against sub-par competition (Kent State, Portland State).

Michigan State has also not been tested, cruising past two MAC opponents (WMU, Akron). Nothing about Sparty jumps off the page on either side, and I don’t think Payton Thorne will handle the road environment well in Seattle considering last season his completion percentage dropped from 66.5 at home to 55.4 on the road, and his YPA dipped from 9.4 to 7.7. I definitely see this line getting to 3.

Minnesota -26.5 over Colorado

The Golden Gophers have the 3rd-most efficient offense in the country through 2 games thanks in large part to churning out 604 rushing yards and 5.54 yards per carry. Senior QB Tanner Morgan sports a 77.8 completion percentage and has been very efficient in 2 blowout wins over Western Illinois and New Mexico State. Colorado has looked awful in their first 2 games and are coming off a battering ram game against Air Force in tough conditions, and now they have to face another physical team on the road. I don’t see any reason why this line shouldn’t close at 28 or higher.

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