Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The most lopsided game of the weekend is easily the Miami Dolphins (+13) vs the Buffalo Bills. Dolphins HC Mike McDaniels has confirmed that Tua Tagovailoa will not play on Sunday, and they are preparing to start Skylar Thompson again. The Bills did not look overly impressive in their Week 18 victory over the New England Patriots. In fact, without 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns, the Bills offense only scored 21 points in a must-win game.
This time around, I’m expecting something very similar to last year’s divisional playoff matchup between the Bills and Patriots that ended in 47-17 victory for Buffalo. The Bills realize this game should be over by halftime but will keep the foot on the gas because it is the playoffs. Allen only through the ball 25 times vs the Patriots last postseason, but still managed to reach 308 passing yards and 5 TDs. I struggle to find a way that Miami can make this game competitive, and I’m predicting a 35-10 result for Buffalo.
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Josh Allen over 253.5 passing yards (-130)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Allen has hit this mark in 5/6 playoff games in his career, including the blowout vs New England I mentioned in the opening section. On the season, he’s hit this in 5/8 home games, including the Week 14 redemption victory over the Dolphins. This is ultimately a tune up game for the next round where they will likely play the Cincinnati Bengals and Allen cannot afford to walk into that game only throwing ~30 passes from the week prior. Miami is 25th overall in pass DVOA and ranked 3rd worst in the NFL on the road at opposing passing yards per game (253.9). 1U
James Cook over 11.5 receiving yards (-117)
Line available on Caesars sportsbook at the time of publishing.
James Cook is a rookie playing in his first playoff game this Sunday and it is imperative to the long-term success of the Buffalo Bills that he is very comfortable playing in this type of atmosphere. There is no better opportunity to get him acclimated than in a playoff game that you favored by 2 touchdowns. Cook is explosive, both out of the backfield and in the passing game, but he is very inexperienced. He offers more big play upside than Devin Singletary and I believe it’s in Buffalo’s best interest to give him a lot of opportunities against Miami so that in round 2, he can really contribute when called upon. The Dolphins have been above average in stopping the run, but their ability to defend running backs in the passing game is less to be desired. They rank 28th overall in receptions per game to opposing RBs (5.59) and 26th overall in receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (43.1). Cook’s reception line is heavily juiced at over 1.5, so 2 receptions is very realistic. When he gets 2+ receptions, he hits this line in 4/6 games and he has a 41-yard reception under his belt this season. 1U
Stefon Diggs longest reception over 24.5 yards (-114)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Stefon Diggs has hit this line 3 of his last 5 playoff games and 11 of 16 games on the season. He has split this line in his games against Miami, hitting once but not in the other. CB Xavien Howard has really struggled this season and he’s given up this line in 7 games. Diggs will predominantly line up across from Howard on the right side. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins rank 30th in DVOA for passes Deep Right (16+ yards), behind only Cincinnati and Arizona. 1U
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Stefon Diggs (+105)
Josh Allen (+150)
Mike Gesicki (+650)
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