Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It’s hard to believe we’re already in Week 12 and it’s Thanksgiving. These games are one of my fondest memories as a kid and I’m excited to share my bets with all of you. Detroit and Buffalo should be a shootout, the Giants/Cowboys NFC East matchup should have playoff implications, and we get to see how Minnesota bounces back from their most embarrassing loss of the season. I hope you enjoy the games and the time with you families. I’m grateful that I have this opportunity to share my picks with all of you and hope I can bring you some financial success as we head into the holiday season. From my family to yours, Happy Thanksgiving!
Don’t forget to check out our NFL picks for all of Thursday’s games!
Gabriel Davis over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The first game of the day will likely be the most electric offensively, as the game total is set at 54.5. Gabe Davis has been Jekyll & Hyde this season, but is coming off two very strong performances (6-93 and 5-68). Both of which were high scoring affairs (63 and 54 points). In Davis’ down games (below this line), the total did not exceed 44. I’m banking on this game being an offensive exchange as the Lions should be getting slightly healthier with Josh Reynolds back in the lineup. Defensively for Detroit, they struggle mightily with WR2s, ranked 26th overall in DVOA. Davis has done most of his work on the left side of the field and Detroit ranks 30th overall in DVOA for left side passing. I’m going 1U on Davis continuing his hot streak in games that have a lot of points.
Don’t miss Clevta’s best bet for Bills-Lions!
Daniel Jones under 194.5 passing yards (-120)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
The Giants offense took another hit last week with Wan’Dale Robinson going on IR for a torn ACL and starting TE Daniel Bellinger being ruled out ahead of Thursday’s game. Jones will be left with Darius Slayton and Kenny Golladay on the perimeter and Lawrence Cager at tight end. The Cowboys’ defense is coming off their total domination of the Minnesota Vikings and have held opposing QB’s under this line in 4 of the L7 games. Jones finished with 196 yards against the Cowboys in his Week 3 matchup, but the part that was very telling is that it was his lowest completion percentage of the season (54%). On the season, Jones has only hit this in 5/10 and the loss of Robinson and Bellinger should spell trouble.
I expect Daboll to go with a run heavy approach between Jones and Barkley to keep the Cowboys offense on the field and make this a low scoring affair. To make matters worse, the Cowboys are 3rd in the league in opponent yards per attempt (5.6) and opponent yards per completion (8.7). I’m on for 1U and you can play down to 192.5.
Check out our Giants vs Cowboys predictions
Dalton Schultz over 37.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Schultz has been back to his 2021 form since Dak returned in Week 7. In that time, he’s second on the team in targets and hit this line in 3 of the L4. Last week against the Vikings was a dip, partially because the game got out of hand fast, and his snap count dipped down to 64%. The Giants are an exciting matchup for the over as they rank 30th overall in DVOA vs TEs. Schultz missed the Week 3 matchup this season versus the Giants, but has he hit this in 3 straight games against the G-Men. We’ve seen him explode for 67, 79 and 79 against the Giants and he will be an alternate-line candidate this Thursday (60+). This is my favorite play of the day at 1.5U.
Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions (+102)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Meyers has been the clear cut WR1 for the New England Patriots this season, but unfortunately, that’s nothing to brag about. Meyers has quietly had a solid year in the final year of his contract and is setting himself up nicely for free agency. The 4th year wide receiver lines up primarily in the slot and has hit this in 4/8 games. Meyers has had tough matchups these last two weeks in against the Jets and Colts, but gets some relief on Thanksgiving with a trip to Minnesota. Slot CB Chandon Sullivan has been getting picked on most of the season, allowing a QB passer rating of 115.8. The Vikings are ranked 26th overall against WR1’s and if Minnesota bounces back as expected, the Patriots will be playing from behind most of the second half. Meyers’ lines used to be set at 5.5 earlier in the year, so I’m rolling with the matchup and an advantageous line at plus odds. 1U from me. If you can’t get the plus odds, I feel comfortable with his over 51.5 receiving yards.
Our expert went 2-0 on TD scorers bets on MNF, check out his Patriots-Vikings TD scorer best bets!
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