Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Player Props: Over 36.5 Passing Attempts en-route to MVP
Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP at +140
As you can tell, I’m leaning Kansas City to pull off the upset. Mahomes getting two weeks of rest for his high-ankle sprain is huge, and obviously being in this spot twice before plays a major role in my decision. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have had one of the best seasons in recent memory and they have clear advantages sprinkled throughout this game (playmakers, offensive line, secondary); but this moment can catch even the best off-guard in their first appearance. For me, the Mahomes/Andy Reid combo is the way to go. Although I mentioned it’s best to play your favorite at 0.5U, I’m going a full 1U on this because I do believe the Chiefs win this game.
If you believe the Eagles win, I’d be reluctant to tail Jalen Hurts (+115) as they have several playmakers who can win this award with big games. As we saw in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles can win games without Hurts looking overly impressive. Hurts has the least value for me in this entire market.
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Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Over 36.5 pass attempts -115
An additional two weeks for his high ankle sprain will help with his pocket mobility, but it still did not prevent him from throwing the ball 43 times vs Cincinnati in the AFC Championship. Mahomes for his postseason career averages 38 attempts per game and hit this line in 8 of 13 (61%); he also hit this in both Super Bowl appearances. While I do think the Chiefs will have success on the ground against the Eagles, the game-plan will rely on Mahomes’ arm — as we have seen in his previous two Super Bowl appearances. What I really like about this play is that it accounts for both game-scripts. If Philadelphia wins, Mahomes will have to throw playing from behind. If the Chiefs prevail, it will be because Mahomes is moving the ball up and down the field. The line is as high as 39.5 at other books, so this is a steal. 1U.
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