Premier League and Bundesliga best bets: Will Liverpool break down Chelsea?

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Brad Thomas


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I am a sports handicapper who is lucky enough to write about my true love; sports. "We may all root for different teams, but our objective remains the same... Beat the book! Remember, it's a marathon not a sprint."

The third week of Premier League soccer is upon us, which means for the third week we will dive into the most challenging of the big five leagues. Last weekend Liverpool, Manchester City, and Chelsea continued to flex their muscles by shutting out their opponents. This weekend both Liverpool and Chelsea will be put to the test as they square off.

Liverpool vs Chelsea | Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET

Looking at this objectively; this is easily the hardest challenge Chelsea has had since the Champions League final. In their first two matches they were as dominant as they possibly could be. They shut out both Crystal Palace and Arsenal, while keeping them both to a combined xG of 0.62.

Liverpool also shutout both teams they played, outscoring their opponents 5-0. For many Liverpool fans it’s probably refreshing for them to see their squad finally converting opportunities. Last season Liverpool struggled to finish in front of the net, one of the main reasons they were fighting to the last day to make the Champions League. Despite the scoreboard dominance over Norwich, their defense absorbed a lot of pressure and Norwich was able to get off 6 shots inside the box.

Chelsea couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season. It’s obvious that Thomas Tuchel’s tactics work and are working well. While watching the fixture with Arsenal, there were times where Chelsea lost their shape and their defense was not sound. Pepe was able to get loose down the left side and cause troubles for the back line. If you let players like Sadio Mane and Mohammed Salah get loose, you will pay.

The bet I like here will not be a popular one, but one I think has a strong chance to hit. I will be taking both teams to score (-130). Much like Arsenal, Villarreal was able to get in deep and fire off a few quality shots. In the 73rd minute Villarreal’s Gerard Moreno was able to convert one of those chances.

Chelsea was able to shutout Liverpool in the last match between the two clubs. However, in the last 10 years, Liverpool has not been shutout in back to back fixtures. Last year was a trying year for Liverpool, with a clean slate they should continue to roll.

As for Chelsea finding the back of the net, count me in. The addition of Lukaku proved to be a huge lift. He should have no problem this season scoring goals. Brace yourselves for a very exciting Saturday fixture.

Three-Team Moneyline Parlay:

Hartberg vs Salzburg | Juventus vs Empoli | Bayern Munich vs Herta (-115)

It’s always difficult to hit a parlay. The more legs you add, the more unlikely it is to hit. For this three-game parlay, I targeted these teams for very specific reasons.

Salzburg Moneyline: Despite playing in a midweek road fixture against Brondby, Salzburg should be up and ready for this match against Hartberg, a team who they generally use as a punching bag. Salzburg are the class of the Austrian Bundesliga. They have started the season 5-0 and have outscored their opponents 15-3. German youngster Karim Adeyemi has come into his own this season with 6 goals in 5 matches. Superstar Mergim Berisha is finally fit and will provide another legitimate threat in front of net.

Juventus Moneyline: Max Allegri has rejoined Juventus in hopes to right the ship. Juventus last season broke their 9-year championship run. Star player Christiano Ronaldo forced his way out of town and it’s time for the rest of the squad to step up. Luckily for Allegri, there is talent on this roster and they welcome league newcomers Empoli. It’s been a few years since Juventus has faced Empoli, but they shouldn’t have any issues taking care of them at home. For the players on the pitch, the distraction of Ronaldo is finally gone, and they can play freely.

Bayern Munich Moneyline: Last but certainly not least, Bayern Munich. Bayern are hosting Hertha Berlin. A team who they’ve had much success over in recent years. Bayern was able to rest many of their key players as they took on Bremer earlier this week. From top to bottom Bayern are much better than Hertha. After dropping points to start the season against Gladbach, they have looked impressive. Nagelsmann inherited a talent squad who should continue their winning ways.

Make sure you check out Saturday’s EPL same game parlay (+536 odds!)

Pickswise is the home of free Soccer Predictions and soccer parlays. With expert picks from the MLS and top European Leagues such as the Premier League, La Liga and the Champions League.

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