Soccer best bets: Can Brentford continue to hum?

Dortmund
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Brad Thomas

Soccer

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I am a sports handicapper who is lucky enough to write about my true love; sports. "We may all root for different teams, but our objective remains the same... Beat the book! Remember, it's a marathon not a sprint."

Soccer season is officially underway, which means we have full slates of games to bet each weekend. In the opening weeks it’s wise to tread lightly and use extra caution when selecting the games you wish to wager on. This season even more so as many top players have played longer and more grueling seasons as they tried to catch up from the matches missed due to Covid-19.

Crystal Palace vs Brentford | Both Teams to Score, Yes (-105)

A wise man once told me, “Bet unders in Premier League and retire young.” This holds to be true as about only 45% of all EPL matches go over their designated total. However, it’s also wise to focus on the teams playing each match and the circumstances in which they enter the fixture.

For Crystal Palace vs Brentford, my attention is on goals. Not the total specifically, but whether both teams will score. At first glance you might see Palace and think both teams to score ‘no’ is an auto bet. However, if you look a bit closer, you will see the value lies with both teams to score, ‘yes’.

Palace is coming off an embarrassing 0-3 road loss to Chelsea. A match where they were only able to register 4 total shots with only 1 finding the target. They were held to an abysmal 0.29 xG and failed to present any real threat.

In Palace’s defense they were playing the Champions of Europe in their season opener. A team who finished second in xGA and first since the appointment of manager Thomas Tuchel.

Now they play host to league newcomers Brentford. Brentford is a new team to the EPL this season, who already stamped their first win in their season opener with Arsenal. While they held Arsenal goalless, they certainly allowed the Gunners to fire at will. It was almost unfair to Arsenal that they were shutout.

  1. Edwards Deming put it plainly, “Without data you’re just another person with an opinion.” So below are some quick stats that further support taking both teams to score.
  • Crystal Palace: Only 8 clean sheets all last season
  • Crystal Palace: More goals allowed home vs away
  • Brentford: Led English Football League Championship division in goals last season
  • Brentford: BTTS in 54% of their matches
  • Brentford: xG of 1.55 and xGA of 1.12

With the -105 price tag, the value lies on taking both teams to score yes (-105).

Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 (-110)

I have been trying to find a way to fade Dortmund this weekend. Let’s not forget it was just Tuesday when they played in a fast-paced Super Cup final with Bayern Munich. Much of their team played the entire 90. It was a game which featured a lot of pace and a lot of action. Should Marco Rose decide not to rotate players, I fully expect to see tired legs during this fixture.

In all honestly, I do not think Freiburg could win this match even with Dortmund’s tired legs. If so, I’d be keen on backing moneyline at +450. I do think they can score and are able to keep it within one score. Freiburg was held goalless in a nil-nil draw with Arminia Bielefeld, but a venture back to Schwarzwald-Stadion should prove to be fruitful against Dortmund.

Freiburg was able to score in the last two home matches against Dortmund. I would be unjust in excluding the fact that Freiburg scored 2 goals on just 6 attempts with an xG of 0.19. That does not stop me in thinking they will hit the board against Dortmund.

One thing remains clear since Rose has taken over; Dortmund will forever be pushing the tempo. Like that of the Euro 2020 winning Italian team, they play from the midfield, constantly applying pressure and waiting to feed their point man up top. The biggest difference between the two sides is Erling Haaland is a class above Ciro Immobile.

The Bundesliga is known for goals. Only two teams finished under the 50% mark for both teams to score. Both Dortmund and Freburg were well over that mark. Dortmund registered a 65% BTTS mark with an improvement to 71% on the road. While Freiburg registered a 59% BTTS mark but saw an improvement to 65% at home. When questioning if Freiburg will score, let’s not forget this was a team that averaged 1.53 goals per match with a 27% improvement at home.

I love Rose’s approach with the Dortmund team. That plus the potentially tired defensive legs of Dortmund, and I am instantly a fan of both teams to score and over 2.5 (-110).

Pickswise is the home of free Soccer Predictions and soccer parlays. With expert picks from the MLS and top European Leagues such as the Premier League, La Liga and the Champions League.

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