The dog house: Three best NFL underdogs for Week 16 - Colts keep rolling

Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts
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Connor Grootenhuis

NFL· 3 weeks ago

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Covering all things sports betting with a focus on MLB and college football. Lifelong sports fan based in the Bayou State of Louisiana. Strong believer that every loss is a bad beat and every win is easy money.

Last week, not only did 2 of our 3 underdog best bets win against the spread but they also won the game outright. The Saints (+11) shut out Tom Brady for just the third time in his entire career, while the Texans (+4) handed the Jaguars yet another loss. Why not keep things rolling this week?

It is now time to take a trip back to The Dog House. Here, I will highlight my 3 favorite underdogs for the week. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our picks on the side and total for every single NFL game. You can also follow Pickswise and myself on Twitter for plenty of betting content.

Detroit Lions +6 (-120) over Atlanta Falcons

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing

After starting the season 0-10-1, the Lions have won 2 of their last 3 games. They appear to be playing with some confidence, and QB Jared Goff has 7 touchdown passes over the last 3 weeks. Despite not winning many games, the Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread this season. Detroit enters this contest with a 9-5 record ATS, which is tied for the 2nd-best mark in the league. The Lions find themselves as 6-point underdogs this week against the Falcons, and the visitors are the team to back.

The Falcons have yet to win a game at home, as they have posted a record of 0-5 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. They are also 0-5 ATS at home. For whatever reason, Atlanta has not been able to get the job done in its own building and laying this many points against a Detroit team that has been great against the spread does not seem ideal. The Lions are coming off their best game of the season and should be playing with some confidence. Take the points with Detroit.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons.

Indianapolis Colts ML (+100) over Arizona Cardinals

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The second underdog pick of the week is a small ‘dog, but getting the Colts ML at +100 has some strong value. Arizona’s 7-0 start to the season is starting to seem like a long time ago, as it is just 3-4 since then. The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Lions last week. They are a better team than what they showed last week, but things won’t get any easier this week as they go up against a red-hot Colts team.

The Colts have had the opposite season to their Christmas night hosts. Indianapolis started 1-4 but it has gone 7-2 since then. The Colts should be full of confidence after ending New England’s 7-game winning streak with a deserved 27-17 victory last week. They won’t want to take a step back with the Titans now just 1 game ahead in the AFC South race. Arizona allowed Lions’ backup RB Craig Reynolds to record 112 rushing yards last week, so star RB Jonathan Taylor could be in for another big day. Additionally, the Cards’ passing attack looks much less threatening without DeAndre Hopkins in the mix.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Indianapolis Colts vs Arizona Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 (-110) over Kansas City Chiefs

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The Chiefs have rattled off seven straight wins to move into first place in the AFC but take a step into the unknown when hosting the Steelers. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were the headline additions to a growing list of Kansas City players on the Covid list, and they are unlikely to face Pittsburgh. The duo have a combined 2,244 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns on the year, and head coach Andy Reid will need to dig deep into his bag of tricks to fill the void left by them.

Despite having some issues stopping the run, the Steelers’ defense won them the game against the Titans in Week 15, creating 3 turnovers in the fourth quarter to keep their playoff hopes alive. It took a monumental effort from TJ Watt, Joe Haden, and company to overcome not just the Titans but also a below-par offense that registered just 168 total yards. The Steelers had been better moving the ball through the air ahead of that poor showing against Tennessee, and they might be able to bounce back in this one. Just like last week, this is a game Pittsburgh can’t afford to lose. The Steelers should have a heightened sense of urgency, and they have performed well as road underdogs in recent memory. They are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

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