This Week's Hottest Trends: Five best trends for betting NFL Week 16

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) passes the ball against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium.
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Andrew Ortenberg

NFL· 3 weeks ago

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I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

We’re approaching the home stretch of the 2021 NFL season, and Week 16 has a lot of potential despite myriad COVID issues. We will, of course, have free picks on the side and total for every game that you can view in our NFL picks tab. But right now we’re talking trends.

Trends can be very important and tell you a lot, or they can be completely insignificant. It’s all about parsing what actually matters, and which ones might reveal something not already being factored into the point spread. Here are our top 5 trends to help you make your Week 16 NFL wagers.

John Harbaugh is 8-0 ATS when going for same-season revenge

If a John Harbaugh Ravens team loses a first matchup against a division rival, they remember it for the second matchup. Harbaugh is a perfect 8-0 ATS when going for same-season revenge against an AFC North opponent. Baltimore will play the Bengals this weekend, and they got clowned by Cincy in the first meeting between these teams.

Unfortunately for Harbaugh as he looks to keep this trend going, his squad has been depleted. It looks like Lamar Jackson will miss another game and the secondary has been ravaged by injuries. If you’re betting the Ravens this week, it might also make you feel better to know that Harbaugh is 10-1 straight up and 7-3-1 ATS when coming off three straight losses.

Mike Tomlin is 31-8-1 ATS as an underdog against teams with an equal or better record

Staying in the AFC North for a moment. This one is just incredible. Shoutout to Chris Raybon at the Action Network for highlighting it. This trend was applicable last week as well, and it hit once again with the Steelers covering against the Titans. When Tomlin is an underdog against a team that has an equal or better record, he’s nearly automatic.

A 31-8-1 mark is a cash rate of 79.5 percent, which is obviously absurd. He’ll get yet another chance to keep this gravy train rolling when the Steelers take on the Chiefs in Week 16. Pittsburgh is an underdog of more than a touchdown, so it will have some points to spare. Kansas City is also dealing with a COVID outbreak — another factor working in the Steelers’ favor.

Kliff Kingsbury is 4-9 ATS as a home favorite

Sticking with one last coaching trend. Kliff Kingsbury was being hailed as a Coach of the Year favorite earlier this season when the Cardinals were the league’s last undefeated team. Arizona has startled to unravel somewhat ever since then, and they’ve failed to perform in the biggest games when expectations are highest. That’s been a consistent theme throughout Kingsbury’s tenure.

Since he took over as head coach, the Cards are just 4-9 ATS as home favorites. They have a huge game on Christmas day against the Colts, where they have a chance to halt their downward slide. But recent history indicates this isn’t the best situation for them to be in. Make sure to check out our same game parlay for Colts vs Cardinals (+1160 odds!)

Josh Allen is 9-3-2 ATS as a road underdog

Kingsbury has been terrible as a home favorite, while Allen has been dynamite as a road underdog. Allen has always been one of those quarterbacks who has fared well as a visitor the past couple of years. And he’ll have one of the biggest road games of his young career this week as the Bills head to New England for a date with the Patriots that will likely determine who wins the AFC East.

The Bills were modest favorites in the first meeting between these teams, and the Pats won that epic snow game on Monday Night Football. Will Buffalo get that revenge? This trend certainly bodes well for them. Read our full game preview to find out what we think.

Dak Prescott is 21-8 ATS in division games

We are wrapping things up with one last quarterback trend. This one is notable with the Cowboys having a big divisional showdown against Washington on Sunday Night Football this week. Throughout his career, Dak Prescott has dominated the NFC East. Against non-division opponents Prescott is actually under water, with a 25-29-2 ATS record.

But within his own division, he’s been a money-making machine. Will that continue in this primetime matchup? I’m a bit skeptical; laying double-digits with a struggling Dallas offense would be too much for me. I’m fading this trend and taking Washington plus the points.

Make sure you check out Pickswise Playbook, our weekly NFL betting show with Chris Rose, Ross Tucker, and Jared Smith as they look to make your next bet better! Out every Thursday.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

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