This Week's Hottest Trends: 5 best trends for betting NFL Week 5
The first few weeks of the NFL season have been thrilling, and Week 5 has just as much potential. We’ll of course have free picks on the side and total for every game, which you can view in our NFL picks tab. But right now we’re talking trends.
Trends can be very important and tell you a lot, or they can be completely insignificant. It’s all about parsing what actually matters, and which ones might reveal something not already being factored into the point spread. Here are our top five trends to help you make your Week 5 NFL wagers:
The favorite is 18-10 ATS in 28 London games
Week 5 will bring the return of NFL games to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Unfortunately, we didn’t have any in the UK last year due to COVID-19. These games are always fun because they give us another standalone match before the full slate starts. With these contests being played thousands of miles away overseas, one could be forgiven for assuming that variance would increase. You might be inclined to back underdogs in these games, thinking that everything goes out the window
However, that wouldn’t have been a profitable strategy. In fact, favorites are 18-10 ATS in the 28 NFL games played in London. That’s a cash rate of more than 64 percent. Might that bode well for the Falcons, who are -3 favorites over the Jets at Tottenham?
Giants are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games
I was on the Giants +7 last week, and New York went into the Superdome and upset the Saints outright. Daniel Jones played really well in that game, and then I saw some really interesting splits. Throughout his career, Jones has consistently played better on the road. Not surprisingly, that’s led to some better results for the Giants. They have thrived as road warriors, going 11-2 against the spread in their last 13 games on the highway.
Daniel Jones is the definition of a ROAD WARRIOR…
His stats comparing homes and away games are quite different:
Home: 15 Games, 62% completion rate, 3,340 yards, 14 TDs, 16 INTs
Away: 16 games: 63.5% completion rate, 3,814 yards, 25 TDs, 7 INT
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) October 5, 2021
The Giants are once again on the road for Week 5 as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in a crucial division game. We’ve already seen this line come down from an opener of +8.5 to +7, so some respected money has been coming in on the Giants.
Mike Zimmer is 32-15 ATS after a loss
The NFL is all about responding to adversity, and Zimmer has done a great job at it throughout his coaching career. Zimmer-coached teams are an impressive 32-15 ATS following a loss. The Vikings are coming off a disappointing defeat to the Browns in a game they had plenty of chances to win. Minnesota is just 1-3 overall, but they very easily could be 4-0 if a few balls had bounced their way.
Just this season, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS coming off a loss. They’ve certainly got a prime get-right spot at home against an 0-4 Lions team. Minnesota has also taken some respected money, as they opened around -8.5 and have now moved out to -10. We’re on the Vikings, as well, and you should check out our full game preview to find out why.
Patrick Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS when not favorited by more than 3
A lot has been made about the Chiefs’ poor performance against the spread recently. Kansas City hadn’t been covering too much over their last dozen games or so, and a lot of people swore off betting on them after their Week 3 loss to the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes responded by going out and leading the Chiefs to a relatively easy cover against the Eagles in Week 4.
While the Chiefs failed to cover a bunch of numbers in a row dating back to last season, they were still winning games. Oddsmakers were just making them large favorites week in and week out and they were taking their foot off the gas at the end of games. That’s why this trend is so interesting. Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS when he’s not favorited by more than three points. When he’s a short favorite or an underdog, he’s been dominant. That’s relevant for Week 5, as the Chiefs have bounced between -2.5 and -3 against the Bills.
The under is 4-0 in Chargers games this year
The Chargers have a lot of talent on offense. Justin Herbert looks like the league’s next star quarterback, and the skill positions are stocked. Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jared Cook. But that hasn’t been reflected in the totals of Chargers games. In fact, the under is a perfect 4-0 to start the Brandon Staley era. The Chargers have been running the ball a ton on early downs, and Staley has the defense playing at a high level.
Clearly, sharp bettors are starting to catch on. This under also took some respected money, as it got steamed down from 49 down to around 47. When you throw in the fact that the Browns’ defense has been playing really well lately, and that Baker Mayfield is dealing with a shoulder injury, there’s a lot to like with this under.
Make sure you check out Pickswise Playbook, our brand new weekly NFL betting show with Chris Rose, Ross Tucker and Jared Smith as they look to make your next bet better! Out every Thursday