Week 14 of the NFL season begins with the Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video. Our NFL expert, Clevta, has a best bet and predictions for the game.
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Clevta’s Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams best bet: Rams +6 (-110)
The Rams’ quarterback situation makes this a difficult game to handicap regardless of who is under center I’m going to grab the points. If we do a market comparison, last week the Rams closed as +6.5 underdogs at home against Seattle. The same Seattle team was favored by 3.5 just 2 weeks ago at home against these Raiders. The market is saying Seattle is about 1.5 to 2 points better than Las Vegas, so for the market this week to essentially be saying it’s only a half-point gap doesn’t make much sense. To me this line should be closer to 4.5, but I get the point that it’s a short week and as of Wednesday morning we still don’t know who is the starting QB for the Rams. That’s why the Raiders get that extra benefit.
My issue is I just despise laying points on the road with Derek Carr considering his track record. In his career as a road favorite he is only 5-12-1 ATS and 8-10 straight up. The Raiders have lost 7 straight ATS as road favorites and are only 2-5 straight up. Their only 2 wins in this span have come by 1 point and 3 points. Carr is 0-4 ATS and an 1-3 straight up as a road favorite of more than a field goal in his career, which is where the Raiders find themselves this week.
Lock in Prop Holliday’s best player props for Raiders vs Rams
It’s also difficult to ever lay a lot of points on the road with potentially the worst pass defense in the NFL with the Raiders. They rank dead last in my opponent adjusted yards per attempt metric. The Raiders have played 7 road games this season and in those games — on an EPA per drop-back basis — they have allowed those opponents to post their #1, 1, 2, 2, 4 and 5 best games of the season on them. They have not held a single opponent below their season average pass EPA figure when on the road this season.
It’s hard for me to make a strong case for the Rams since they are a mash unit all over the place on offense, but as long as either John Wolford or even Baker Mayfield gets the start, they should be able to do just enough to stay within the number.
Don’t miss our Raiders vs Rams Same Game Parlay at +1148 odds
Clevta’s best prop bet: Van Jefferson over 37.5 receiving yards (-114)
Jefferson is the only WR on the Rams’ active roster who has any sort of real pedigree. He has seen at least 4 targets in every game and put up 41, 29 and 39 yards in the 3 since Cooper Kupp went down. Jefferson saw a 29% air yard share last week with Wolford, and against a poor pass defense like the Raiders — who allow the highest ypa in the NFL on an adjusted basis — Jefferson could clear this with just 1 or 2 opportunities.
Don’t miss our 2 Raiders vs Rams touchdown scorer best bets!
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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