Thursday Night Football New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) in action against the Arizona Cardinals at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Instead of just 1 game on Thursday night, we’re treated to 3 games in NFL Week 12! The Thanksgiving Day slate is always a fun one as the Bills-Lions begin the day, followed by the Giants-Cowboys, and then the Patriots-Vikings concludes the holiday docket. New England visits Minnesota for the night game and our expert has 2 picks, including a best bet, for the matchup.

NFL Week 12 New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings predictions

It’s a short week for both teams, as they have a quick turnaround before they are featured in the night game of the Thanksgiving day slate. The Patriots won their Week 11 matchup without scoring a touchdown on offense, while the Vikings also failed to score a touchdown, but they lost by 37 points. These two offenses will be attempting to right the ship on Thursday night, but our expert isn’t too sure either offense will dominate. Our expert has analyzed this matchup and came up with his picks and best bets, so let’s dive right in.

New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings spread, odds & betting lines

Point spread: Patriots +2.5, Vikings -2.5
Total points over/under: 42.5 points
Money line odds: Patriots +125, Vikings -145

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New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings expert picks

We have 2 great NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Patriots and Vikings.

Patriots vs Vikings point spread pick: Vikings -2.5 (-115)

These 2 teams had their Week 11 matchups end very differently. The Patriots and Jets played 59 minutes of defensive football with just two field goals scored on offense – a true snooze-fest. The Vikings, however, were getting beat so badly that CBS cut coverage of the game halfway through the 3rd quarter. Quite the difference! The squads will have a quick turnaround for Week 12 as they are featured in the few Thanksgiving games, and this seems like a perfect spot to buy low on the Vikings. Minnesota got exposed in their 40-3 defeat to Dallas, as Kirk Cousins barely mustered 100 passing yards, and the Vikings secondary allowed over 300 passing yards. Cousins will face a Patriots defense that is incredibly similar to the Cowboys’, but the difference between Dallas and New England is on offense. The New England defense and special teams have as many touchdowns as the offense in the last 3 games. The Vikings’ defense isn’t great, but against the Patriots, they should shine.

The Patriots defense has allowed only 6 points in their last 2 games. Granted, both games came against inexperienced quarterbacks, but it has still been impressive. However, the Patriots have not faced an offense as dynamic as the Vikings since Week 3 — when they lost to the Ravens and surrendered 37 points. Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and TJ Hockenson will be too much for the New England defense. The last time the Patriots were underdogs on Thanksgiving was in 2000 (+6.5 to the Lions) and they lost that game 34-9. I have little faith in Jones on offense, so I’ll take the points with the Vikings.

Be sure to check out our full Patriots vs Vikings predictions

Patriots vs Vikings Over/Under totals pick: Under 42.5 (-110)

It’s nearly become instinctive to take the under when the Patriots play – especially if the total is in the 40s. This is the highest total of a Patriots game since Week 6, when it was set at 43.5 against the Browns, and I’m backing the under with confidence. The last 3 New England games ended with 39, 29 and 13 points, and that’s because of the combination of their poor offense and excellent defense. In those 3 games for the Patriots, Mac Jones and the offense have scored 2 touchdowns. It’s been a pathetic showing for them on offense, and it’s been their defense that has kept them in so many games. These two teams have only 3 days of rest before this primetime game, and if trends mean anything, scoring should be scarce. The under is 17-8 in the last 25 Thanksgiving games and 7-0 in the last 7 Thanksgiving night games. At the time of publishing, 57% of the bets and 81% of the money is on the under at DraftKings Sportsbook.


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