Today’s Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Monday, 3/11: Brandon Miller starts fast for Hornets

Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (24) high fives Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges (0) after a basket is scored during the third quarter at Spectrum Center.
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Ahaan Rungta


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NBA & MLB writer for Pickswise, also specializing in NFL betting and fantasy football. Rungta also works in analytics & betting for PlayerProfiler. For Ahaan Rungta media enquiries, please email
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An eventful weekend in the NBA is now behind us and it is time for a new week of looking for value in the betting market. I am now 39-29 for a +9.5% ROI on the season with NBA player props in this article series. These are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, March 10. To mark the launch of online sports betting in North Carolina, I’ve even included a pick on a Charlotte Hornets player! You can also read our NBA picks for today’s games, but for now, let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bets.

In North Carolina and having trouble choosing a sportsbook to kick off your sports betting experience? Check out the latest North Carolina Sportsbooks, Best Betting Sites, Apps & Guide.

Brandon Miller (CHA) over 4.5 first-quarter points (-123)

Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The new-look Charlotte Hornets are young, exciting and a bit inconsistent but their first-round draft pick Brandon Miller has been their offensive leader all season long, especially with Terry Rozier out of town and LaMelo Ball sidelined due to injury. Since the all-star break, Miller has been a lock for 8-10 minutes in the first quarter regardless of some lineup changes. With guard scorer Tre Mann doubtful for Monday’s contest, Miller’s usage should see an uptick. In this span, Miller has averaged 3.7 points per 9 minutes in the first quarter but had to face a few matchups that could counter his skillset, such as the Bucks’ paint protection, the Wizards’ stingy catch-and-shoot scheme and the Magic’s elite overall unit.

Miller finally draws a cakewalk of a matchup against the Pistons; over their last 15 games, Detroit is a bottom-10 defense at the rim, in the paint and against the midrange and a below-average efficiency defense against catch-and-shoot three-pointers in the first quarter. In this spot, we project Miller for 6.0 first-quarter points and this prop is therefore playable up to a -130 price.

We also have a Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons Same Game Parlay for you at +553 odds!

Alex Caruso (CHI) 2+ made threes (-110)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The Chicago Bulls have turned Alex Caruso into more than just a lockdown specialist; this season, Caruso has taken on a larger role as a catch-and-shoot player and even though he has lately been streaky from deep, the volume should be there in Monday’s matchup.

On the season, in games with DeMar DeRozan and Coby White active but Zach LaVine out, Caruso has averaged 1.8 makes on 5.1 attempts per 30 minutes as a starter; in addition, his shooting splits have seen a massive spike at home. Now, he faces a Mavericks defense that struggles against shooters. Over their last 15 games, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most threes made per game overall and the 5th-most catch-and-shoot threes made per game.

In this game, we see a high Vegas total (233) and a relatively close Vegas spread (5.5) where Caruso’s defensive skillset will be needed in bulk against the backcourt duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Expect heavy minutes for the two-way guard—we will gladly bet on regression to the mean for Caruso since we project him for 5.5 attempts and 2.0 makes, making this bet a steal at pick ‘em. This prop is playable up to a -125 price.

Start the week right with tonight’s NBA mega parlay at +958 odds

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