College Football Week 5 Best Bets: Friday, October 2

Fridays don’t always provide the best matchups in college football, but the last few weeks have been very good, and the Week 5 Friday slate should be no different. We will be treated to a battle of undefeated, though somehow unranked ACC teams with Pitt vs Virginia Tech, a Conference USA matchup in Liberty vs Delaware that could prove influential in deciding which team has a better shot of making their conference title game and a feline Big Ten matchup in Penn State vs Northwestern, including a Wildcats team that came to play last Friday against the defending national champions. We even have an FCS matchup that includes the reigning national champion at that level as a nightcap. 

Ahead of a solid, though abbreviated slate, here is my college football best bet for Friday’s card. For more tips and picks on every FBS game and select FCS matchups this season, make sure to check out our CFB predictions. 

CFB Week 5 Friday best bet: Pitt Panthers +3 over Virginia Tech Hokies (-120)

Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +2 (-120).

This is quite an interesting matchup. While both Pitt and Virginia Tech are 4-0, we still don’t really know how good either team is – so this game will be a great measuring stick in that regard. That said, I’m confused by the price. To list Virginia Tech as a -2.5 or -3 favorite at home suggests they’re somewhere around five or six points better than Pitt on a neutral field. I just don’t see that. Maybe oddsmakers are giving VT anywhere between 1.5 to 2.5 extra points for home-field advantage in prime time under the Friday night lights, but I still struggle to get to that number.

I would argue Pitt has been the better team. Both teams have had inferior schedules, and both even had weather games that I’m essentially writing off, but the Panthers have at least lived up to the billing defensively. They’re 12th in PPA per play and third in success rate allowed, while surrendering an average of only four non-garbage-time scoring opportunities per game (drives inside the 40-yard line), yielding just 1.7 points on those possessions – which is good for third nationally. Virginia Tech ranks 50th or worse in PPA per play, success rate and scoring opportunities allowed, and they’re nearly one full point worse than Pitt in points per opportunity allowed. They’re also 117th in standard downs PPA allowed outside of garbage time, which means Pitt will have a good opportunity to stay ahead of the sticks in this one – especially with RB Ja’Kyrian Turner returning healthy for this game – increasing their likelihood of reaching the red zone more than the Hokies. For reference, the Hokies have allowed only nine red-zone opportunities, but seven of them ended up in the end zone. Pitt has allowed only six, and just three found pay dirt.

Offensively, the Hokies have some question marks as they step up in conference-opponent caliber. They’re outside the top 90 in yards per play, which is a concern against a strength of schedule that ranks 131st across both FBS and FCS, plus they’re 100th in line yards, 121st in stuff rate allowed and 75th in havoc allowed. Not to mention, Ethan Grunkemeyer hasn’t really proven himself as a difference-maker under center. He has just one big-time throw this year with an aDOT of just 6.6 yards, which ranks 143rd out of 151 qualified quarterbacks. Pitt QB Mason Heintschel is tied atop the ACC with nine big-time throws and has an aDOT of 9.4 yards. 

This line is bouncing around +2.5 and +3 at some books, so I’m going to pay a little bit extra to get the key number of three, but I wouldn’t be surprised with an outright Pitt win here. The Panthers were road warriors last year, but being their first road game of this season, I feel a bit more comfortable with the points than the money line on the visitors in Blacksburg.