Matthew Lowrimore
UFC
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UFC 284 takes place on Saturday at the RC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. This card features a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski as the Main Event and an interim featherweight title fight between Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett as the Co-Main Event.
Here is our favorite parlay for this card, with odds of +833 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 284 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
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Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski – Over 2.5 rounds (-160)
Both Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski have been dominant in their UFC careers, but Makhachev is still the overwhelming favorite. Volkanovski certainly has the edge in striking, but since joining the UFC, Makhachev has taken minimal damage over his 13 UFC fights. He has been knocked out only once and that was in his second UFC fight. On top of that, Makhachev is an elite grappler and would prefer to do most of his work on the ground. Volkanovski has seen his last 6 UFC fights in a row go over 2.5 rounds, while 5 of Makhachev’s last 7 UFC fights have done the same. For that reason, backing this fight to go over 2.5 rounds will be the play.
Jamie Mullarkey vs Francisco Prado – Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)
Jaime Mullarkey is the clear favorite in this fight, and rightly so as he is a much more experienced fighter in the UFC. However, he has still been inconsistent. We don’t know what to expect from Francisco Prado in his first UFC fight. However, one thing that is consistent is the rate at which these fighters can finish a fight. Mullarkey has seen 16 of his 20 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 3 of his last 4 fights. Half of his 6 UFC fights have also ended inside the distance and backing this fight to do the same will be our pick.
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Loma Lookboonmee win by decision vs Elise Reed (-135)
Loma Lookboonmee comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-3. She is 4-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Denise Gomes by unanimous decision in September 2022. Lookboonmee is averaging 4.21 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%. She is absorbing 2.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. Her grappling is solid, averaging 1.83 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 47%, while her takedown defense is 74%.
Lookboonmee is a heavy favorite in this fight, so backing her money line does not look to be worth a play. She has won 6 of her 7 career fights by decision, which includes all of her UFC wins. Elise Reed has only ever lost by KO/TKO, but with Lookboonmee having won only once by KO/TKO, backing her to win by decision will be the play.
Blake Bilder ML over Shane Young (+120)
Blake Bilder has an MMA record of 7-0-1. He is 1-0 in the UFC, but this will be his UFC debut. His lone UFC fight was in the Dana White Contender Series, where he beat Alexander Morgan by submission in August 2022. Bilder is averaging 2.78 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. He has not yet succeeded in taking down an opponent, but he is averaging 9.3 submission attempts per every 15 minutes.
Shane Young is a small favorite in the fight, but Bilder has been almost perfect in his MMA career. The only fight that he had that was not a win was a draw. Young has the edge in grappling, but Bilder’s submission ability will likely give him the edge. For that reason, backing Bilder to win will be the play.
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