UFC Fight Night 276: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa picks, predictions and best bets: Allen's Struggles Continue

Mar 19, 2022; London, UK; Arnold Allen (red gloves) celebrates after defeating Dan Hooker (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at O2 Arena.

Matthew Lowrimore

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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UFC best bet: Melquizael Costa ML over Arnold Allen (+136)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +136.

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 276 will see Arnold Allen take on Melquizael Costa. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Costa enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-7 and 7-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.38 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Costa absorbs 2.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.00 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 58%.

Allen is the heavy favorite in this fight; however, Costa looks to be the best betting option. For one, Costa is in much better form, having won 6 UFC fights in a row, while Allen is 1-3 over his last 4 UFC fights. Further, Costa has the better striking volume and grappling ability. For that reason, backing Costa to win in an upset will be our best bet.

Read our full Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa prediction

UFC prediction: DooHo Choi vs. Daniel Santos – Over 1.5 Total Rounds (-180)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -180.

The Co-Main Event at UFC Fight Night 276 will see Dooho Choi take on Daniel Santos. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. For this fight, we will be looking at a total rounds prop. Santos has seen 4 of his 5 UFC fights go over 1.5 total rounds, while Choi has seen his last 6 UFC fights do the same. Both fighters have been able to extend the majority of their recent fights into the later rounds; therefore, backing over 1.5 total rounds is our best bet.

Read our full Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos prediction

UFC pick: Khaos Williams ML over Nikolay Veretennikov (-122)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -122.

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 276 will see Nikolay Veretennikov take on Khaos Williams. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Williams enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-5 and 6-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.94 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. Williams absorbs 5.39 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%. He has not shown any grappling ability in the UFC, but has a takedown defense of 51%.

Williams is the small favorite in this fight; however, he still looks to be the best betting option. While neither fighter has been consistent in the UFC, Williams has a clear advantage due to his striking volume. Veretennikov, on the other hand, has a slight edge in grappling, but does not land takedowns with much accuracy for it to be a threat to Williams. Regardless, given that Williams has still been more successful in the UFC, backing Williams to win will be our best bet.

Read our full Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams prediction