Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
We are back in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex this week for UFC Fight Night 188. This week’s card will feature a Bantamweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +564. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 188 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Rob Font/Cody Garbrandt Fight to go the Distance – No (-275)
Rob Font comes into this fight 8-3 in the UFC and is coming off a TKO/KO win over Marlon Moraes in December 2020. He has now won three fights in a row, dating back to December 2018. Font is averaging 5.21 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 42 percent. He is absorbing 3.83 strikes and has a striking defense of 62 percent.
Cody Garbrandt comes into this fight 7-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Raphael Assuncao by TKO/KO in June 2020. He is averaging 3.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 37 percent. Garbrandt is absorbing 3.33 strikes and has a striking defense of 65 percent.
Because both guys have plenty of finishes, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
David Dvorak Money Line (-150)
David Dvorak comes into this fight 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jordan Espinosa by unanimous decision in September 2020. Dvorak is averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48 percent. He is absorbing 3.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 63 percent.
Raulian Paiva may have won his last fight, but he was outstruck and was taken down twice. I do not trust him to break down a guy who has looked impressive in the UFC thus far. For that reason, I will be backing Dvorak to win.
Jack Hermansson Money Line (-160)
Jack Hermansson comes into this fight 8-4 in the UFC, most recently coming off a loss to Marvin Vettori. That was in December 2020 and came by unanimous decision. Hermansson is averaging 5.03 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 44 percent. He is absorbing 3.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 54 percent. He is a decent grappler, averaging 1.96 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 34 percent and his takedown defense is 75 percent.
Hermansson did an amazing job to go the distance with Vettori, while Edmen Shahbazyan’s chin now needs to be a main concern. Hermansson’s solid takedown defense should be able to keep this fight standing and he has the better striking, therefore backing him to win will be my play.
Damir Ismagulov Win by Decision (-125)
Damir Ismagulov comes into this fight 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Thiago Moises by unanimous decision in August 2019. He is averaging 3.76 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 43 percent of the time. Ismagulov is absorbing 1.87 strikes and has a striking defense of 69 percent. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.67 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 31 percent and his takedown defense is 100 percent.
Ismagulov has won all three of his UFC fights by decision and the fact that he already beaten a guy like Moises is impressive. Almost half of his wins have come by decision, so that is what I will be backing here.
