UFC Fight Night 190 predictions, picks and four-fight parlay

May 11, 2019; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Warlley Alves (red gloves) fights Sergio Moraes (blue gloves) during UFC 237 at Jeunesse Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

UFC Fight Night 190 is happening in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, featuring a heavyweight fight as the Main Event.

Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 190 that pays at odds of +523. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 190 predictions for the full 13-fight card.

Charles Rosa ML (-175) vs. Justin Jaynes

Charles Rosa comes into this fight 4-5 in the UFC, most recently losing to Darrick Minner. This was a loss by unanimous decision and came in February this year. Rosa is averaging 3.11 significant strikes per minute, but landing them only 37 percent of the time. He is absorbing 3.78 strikes and has a striking defense of 48 percent. Rosa will look to take this fight to the ground where he is averaging 1.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 32 percent and a takedown defense of 40 percent.

The chin is still a huge concern for Justin Jaynes and his grappling is not going to be a huge factor either. So, while Rosa has been somewhat inconsistent, I still like him to win this fight.

Ike Villanueva vs. Marcin Prachnio under 2.5 rounds (-125)

Ike Villanueva comes into this fight 1-2 in the UFC, most recently picking up his first UFC win against Vinicius Moreira by TKO/KO in January this year. Villanueva is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40 percent. He is absorbing 6.93 strikes and has a striking defense of 37 percent.

Marcin Prachnio comes into this fight 1-3 in the UFC, also picking up his first win last time out in January, by unanimous decision against Khalil Roundtree Jr. Prachnio is averaging 5.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47 percent. He is absorbing 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 58 percent.

Because both of these fighters have been inconsistent to start their UFC careers, I am going to look for there to be a relatively quick finish. All of Villanueva’s UFC fights have ended in under 2.5 rounds and three of Prachnio’s four UFC fights have done the same. For that reason, I will be backing under 2.5 rounds.

Warlley Alves ML (-225) vs. Jeremiah Wells

Warlley Alves comes into this fight 8-4 in the UFC, most recently beating Mounir Lazzez by TKO/KO in January. Alves is averaging 3.09 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47 percent. He is absorbing 3.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 50 percent. His grappling is also pretty good, averaging 1.48 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 54 percent and his takedown defense is 75 percent.

There is very little to go off with Jeremiah Wells, especially since we have yet to see him at the UFC level. Alves had a nice bounce-back win in January, so I will look his way to improve his record.

Renato Moicano vs. Jai Herbert – fight to go the distance – No (-190)

Renato Moicano comes into this fight 6-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Rafael Fiziev by TKO/KO in December 2020. He is averaging 5.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46 percent. He is absorbing 3.74 strikes and has a striking defense of 65 percent. His grappling has been decent, averaging 1.28 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 53 percent and a takedown defense of 78 percent.

Jai Herbert comes into this fight 0-1 in the UFC after losing by TKO/KO to Francisco Trinaldo on his debut in July 2020. He is averaging 1.83 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 30 percent. He is absorbing 2.61 strikes and has a striking defense of 48 percent. As for grappling, Herbert has not shown much so far in the UFC. He also has a takedown defense of only 33 percent.

This looks to be a fight that will be fast-paced, which is why I like there to be a finish. Herbert’s lone UFC fight ended inside the distance and Moicano’s last five fights have done the same. For that reason, my play will be for the fight to end inside the distance and I will look to use this prop in a parlay.

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bet from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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